2008/8/11 3：13
Washington Report by Yoshiki Hidaka on '08. Aug.10th
How far crude oil prices will hike?
- Interviewee: Samuel Wright Bodman: U.S Secretary of Energy
- Interviewee: David Smick: Expert in the oil issue
- Interviewer: Robert Novak: Conservative columnist
- Interviewer: Yoshiki Hidaka: Researcher of Hudson Research Lab
Last July, crude oil prices marked its record high of $147/barrel. But since then, futures of WTI -- light & sweet crude oil -- has declined rapidly to lower $120/barrel on the NYMEX.
Mr. Hidaka interviewed with U.S Secretary of Energy, Mr. Spencer Abraham to hear about energy issue. But this TV program is a taped broadcasting so that it doesn't reflect recent oil prices plunge.
Here, Mr. Bodman is a successor of ex. U.S Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham, for your ref.>"2007. 11/11th. How far crude oil prices will hike?"
1st. Section. How far crude oil producers will be able to raise their production?
- At present, world is consuming 8.5 million barrel per day.
- Saudi Arabia is aiming to raise its production by 2.5 million barrel.
- Crude oil demands rose in the period from 2007 to early half of 2007. As the result, concerns about supply capacity has emerged.
- True cause of oil prices hike is tightening supply-demand conditions -- oil production can't follow demand increase.
Comment;
It is said that Saudi Arabia is the only country that has both ability and intention to raise its oil production. But we should remind that crude oil supplied by Saudi Arabia is relatively heavy.
On the other hand, market wants light and sweet oil. So it is doubtful that production boost by Saudi will be able to cool market down.
Speculative money can surely enlarge short term volatility. But mid and long term general trend of market prices reflect fundamental supply-demand conditions.
It means that as emerging economies such as China and India continue to growth, they need more and more energy resources.
Recent oil prices plunge means that speculative money is flowing out from oil market. But it is very likely that we can't expect price will decline lower than $100/barrel, for your ref.>"The oil price, Nothing to smile about"
When it comes so called "BRICs," Brazil has an another story because it has not only energy but also huge amount of mineral resources.
Russia, giant energy producer and exporter, has more complicated story. Russia has intended to flex its muscle via utilizing its energy resource.
Especially, regarding natural gas trade, tension between Europe and Russia is rising, for your ref.>"Ending the silent Russian-European war"
Russia has not only nationalized its energy production, but also is depriving energy interests from foreigners to demostic firsm.
It is also reported that Russia has intention to form natural-gas edition of OPEC, for your ref.>"The gas market, Flaring up again"
In a nut shell, Russia aims to establish energy hegemony. Concerning this issue, there is one more crucial more recently, for your ref.>"Georgia, Abkhazia & Russia" & "Georgia & Russia, War erupts in Georgia" & "Georgia & Russia, Russia has the upper hand"
It is reported that Russia is strengthening its attack against Georgia, and Georgia is forced to withdraw from region of South Ossetia.
Central Asian and Caspian Sea are expected to be next generation oil suppliers. And energy pipelines pass through Kavkas (Caucasia) region.
These pipelines are constructed based on intention to transport energy resources from central Asia to Europe to avoid passing through Russian territory.
But if Russia makes Georgia under occupation practically, these pipelines will also fall into Russia's hand. In this meaning, we should keep to pay attention to the Caucasian conditions.
For your ref.>Energy reform in Mexico, Crude & oily
>チェチェン紛争 〜 遅れてきた民族自決主義 〜
2nd. Section. What kind of policy measures Washington will take?
- Although Washington makes as much effort as possible to develop alternative energy resources, it will take a long time.
- Washington will tackle with developing crude oil resources in Alaska and continental shelf, and oil shale.
- If impose taxes on oil firms that are making excessive profits, they will run away to foreign countries.
Comment;
Energy issue was one of the main agendas in >"The 34th Toyoko G8 Summit Meeting in 2008".
And it is said that a presidential candidate -- Barack Obama or John Sidney McCain III -- who can settle high oil prices issue will take the seat of the next U.S. president.
More precisely speaking, this time "It's the economy, studpid!" again.
For your ref.>Energy supplies, The devil & the deep blue sea
>American politics, Sparring over energy
>The Fed, More worried about growth
>Alan Greenspan on financial turbulence, Hire the A-Team
3rd. What important are nuclear power and coal.
- Research to exclude CO2 from coal is being progressed in the U.S.
- In the U.S., where around 100 nuclear plants are there, 30 - 40 of construction of new nuclear plants are applied.
For your ref.>2006. 2/12th. Neo nuclear power plant era
>翻訳：石炭火力発電、未だ強力に成長中
4th. Section. Does China intend to monopolize crude oil resources?
- The more China's economy continue to expand, the more it needs all kind of natural resources.
- China has already launched a natural resources war in order to secure crude oil from around the world.
- China is to crush against the world to seek crude oil.
Comment;
On Aug. 8th, >"Beijing Olympics, Show time" has started, and the CCP government is fully showing its national dignity.
But on the other hand, China's economy shows signs of bubble burst, for your ref.>"Sign of bubble burst in China"
Ironically, the more China's economy deteriorates, the more CCP is forced to secure stable energy supply to avoid economic and social chaos, for your ref.>"Beijing squeezed by Olympic ideals, populist distortions"
- 5th. Section. How far crude oil prices will rise
- Goldman Sachs forecasts that crude oil prices will reach $200/barrel next year. And when the prices surpass $250/barrel, the period of crude oil will end.
- It could be possible that the prices will jump to $200/barrel next year.
- Next year, it is likely that the prices will remain current lever, or decline a little bit.
- If the U.S. economy is bad for 1.5 years from now on, the world economy will be disastrous conditions.
Comment;
The world economy is under strong influence of the U.S. economy, and the Japan's is not the exception.
Both Toyota and Nissan, both depend on the U.S. market, are suffering from deteriorating the U.S. economy, for your ref.>"Nissan offering buyouts to 6,000 U.S. employees" & "Toyota posts bleak results for quarter"
Airline industry is also suffering from rising oil prices, for your ref.>"ANA set to suspend or reduce 11 routes"
In the long term, it could be possible that Japan will take advantage of high energy prices via development of green technology, for your ref.>"Nissan shows off prototypes of electric, hybrid vehicles"
It could be also possible to change people's lifestyle, for your ref.>Bicycles, Bumpy roads
But when it comes to the short term counter measures, I don't think that Japan has various measures.
Anyway, here, Japan should also remind its past -- Japan was forced into reckless war against the U.S. via oil embargo and Hull Note.
Article 9th of the Constitution? Ha, ha, ha, it has nothing to do with the Japan's energy national security.
Not only military security but also energy and food ones should be reconsidered seriously. At first, Japan should never compromise with China on the energy resources issue in the East China Sea.
For your ref.>Commodities, Endurance test
>Commodities, A petrodollar saved
>Oil prices, Running out of gas
>Untapped energy source fuels a paradox
>Liquefied natural gas, A more liquid market
>Boom & bust in oil
>Oil, Well prepared
"Return to the top"
0
- Interviewee: Samuel Wright Bodman: U.S Secretary of Energy
- Interviewee: David Smick: Expert in the oil issue
- Interviewer: Robert Novak: Conservative columnist
- Interviewer: Yoshiki Hidaka: Researcher of Hudson Research Lab
Last July, crude oil prices marked its record high of $147/barrel. But since then, futures of WTI -- light & sweet crude oil -- has declined rapidly to lower $120/barrel on the NYMEX.
Mr. Hidaka interviewed with U.S Secretary of Energy, Mr. Spencer Abraham to hear about energy issue. But this TV program is a taped broadcasting so that it doesn't reflect recent oil prices plunge.
Here, Mr. Bodman is a successor of ex. U.S Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham, for your ref.>"2007. 11/11th. How far crude oil prices will hike?"
1st. Section. How far crude oil producers will be able to raise their production?
- At present, world is consuming 8.5 million barrel per day.
- Saudi Arabia is aiming to raise its production by 2.5 million barrel.
- Crude oil demands rose in the period from 2007 to early half of 2007. As the result, concerns about supply capacity has emerged.
- True cause of oil prices hike is tightening supply-demand conditions -- oil production can't follow demand increase.
Comment;
It is said that Saudi Arabia is the only country that has both ability and intention to raise its oil production. But we should remind that crude oil supplied by Saudi Arabia is relatively heavy.
On the other hand, market wants light and sweet oil. So it is doubtful that production boost by Saudi will be able to cool market down.
Speculative money can surely enlarge short term volatility. But mid and long term general trend of market prices reflect fundamental supply-demand conditions.
It means that as emerging economies such as China and India continue to growth, they need more and more energy resources.
Recent oil prices plunge means that speculative money is flowing out from oil market. But it is very likely that we can't expect price will decline lower than $100/barrel, for your ref.>"The oil price, Nothing to smile about"
When it comes so called "BRICs," Brazil has an another story because it has not only energy but also huge amount of mineral resources.
Russia, giant energy producer and exporter, has more complicated story. Russia has intended to flex its muscle via utilizing its energy resource.
Especially, regarding natural gas trade, tension between Europe and Russia is rising, for your ref.>"Ending the silent Russian-European war"
Russia has not only nationalized its energy production, but also is depriving energy interests from foreigners to demostic firsm.
It is also reported that Russia has intention to form natural-gas edition of OPEC, for your ref.>"The gas market, Flaring up again"
In a nut shell, Russia aims to establish energy hegemony. Concerning this issue, there is one more crucial more recently, for your ref.>"Georgia, Abkhazia & Russia" & "Georgia & Russia, War erupts in Georgia" & "Georgia & Russia, Russia has the upper hand"
It is reported that Russia is strengthening its attack against Georgia, and Georgia is forced to withdraw from region of South Ossetia.
Central Asian and Caspian Sea are expected to be next generation oil suppliers. And energy pipelines pass through Kavkas (Caucasia) region.
These pipelines are constructed based on intention to transport energy resources from central Asia to Europe to avoid passing through Russian territory.
But if Russia makes Georgia under occupation practically, these pipelines will also fall into Russia's hand. In this meaning, we should keep to pay attention to the Caucasian conditions.
For your ref.>Energy reform in Mexico, Crude & oily
>チェチェン紛争 〜 遅れてきた民族自決主義 〜
2nd. Section. What kind of policy measures Washington will take?
- Although Washington makes as much effort as possible to develop alternative energy resources, it will take a long time.
- Washington will tackle with developing crude oil resources in Alaska and continental shelf, and oil shale.
- If impose taxes on oil firms that are making excessive profits, they will run away to foreign countries.
Comment;
Energy issue was one of the main agendas in >"The 34th Toyoko G8 Summit Meeting in 2008".
And it is said that a presidential candidate -- Barack Obama or John Sidney McCain III -- who can settle high oil prices issue will take the seat of the next U.S. president.
More precisely speaking, this time "It's the economy, studpid!" again.
For your ref.>Energy supplies, The devil & the deep blue sea
>American politics, Sparring over energy
>The Fed, More worried about growth
>Alan Greenspan on financial turbulence, Hire the A-Team
3rd. What important are nuclear power and coal.
- Research to exclude CO2 from coal is being progressed in the U.S.
- In the U.S., where around 100 nuclear plants are there, 30 - 40 of construction of new nuclear plants are applied.
For your ref.>2006. 2/12th. Neo nuclear power plant era
>翻訳：石炭火力発電、未だ強力に成長中
4th. Section. Does China intend to monopolize crude oil resources?
- The more China's economy continue to expand, the more it needs all kind of natural resources.
- China has already launched a natural resources war in order to secure crude oil from around the world.
- China is to crush against the world to seek crude oil.
Comment;
On Aug. 8th, >"Beijing Olympics, Show time" has started, and the CCP government is fully showing its national dignity.
But on the other hand, China's economy shows signs of bubble burst, for your ref.>"Sign of bubble burst in China"
Ironically, the more China's economy deteriorates, the more CCP is forced to secure stable energy supply to avoid economic and social chaos, for your ref.>"Beijing squeezed by Olympic ideals, populist distortions"
- 5th. Section. How far crude oil prices will rise
- Goldman Sachs forecasts that crude oil prices will reach $200/barrel next year. And when the prices surpass $250/barrel, the period of crude oil will end.
- It could be possible that the prices will jump to $200/barrel next year.
- Next year, it is likely that the prices will remain current lever, or decline a little bit.
- If the U.S. economy is bad for 1.5 years from now on, the world economy will be disastrous conditions.
Comment;
The world economy is under strong influence of the U.S. economy, and the Japan's is not the exception.
Both Toyota and Nissan, both depend on the U.S. market, are suffering from deteriorating the U.S. economy, for your ref.>"Nissan offering buyouts to 6,000 U.S. employees" & "Toyota posts bleak results for quarter"
Airline industry is also suffering from rising oil prices, for your ref.>"ANA set to suspend or reduce 11 routes"
In the long term, it could be possible that Japan will take advantage of high energy prices via development of green technology, for your ref.>"Nissan shows off prototypes of electric, hybrid vehicles"
It could be also possible to change people's lifestyle, for your ref.>Bicycles, Bumpy roads
But when it comes to the short term counter measures, I don't think that Japan has various measures.
Anyway, here, Japan should also remind its past -- Japan was forced into reckless war against the U.S. via oil embargo and Hull Note.
Article 9th of the Constitution? Ha, ha, ha, it has nothing to do with the Japan's energy national security.
Not only military security but also energy and food ones should be reconsidered seriously. At first, Japan should never compromise with China on the energy resources issue in the East China Sea.
For your ref.>Commodities, Endurance test
>Commodities, A petrodollar saved
>Oil prices, Running out of gas
>Untapped energy source fuels a paradox
>Liquefied natural gas, A more liquid market
>Boom & bust in oil
>Oil, Well prepared
"Return to the top"
0
