2008/11/23 20：25
Washington Report by Yoshiki Hidaka on '08. Nov. 23th
Will the U.S. economy recover under the President Obama?
- Interviewee: Thomas J. Donohue. President and CEO, U.S. Chamber of Commerce
- Interviewee: Albert R. Hunt; Executive editor for Washington at Bloomberg
- Interviewee: Frederic W. Barnes; Executive editor of the news publication "The Weekly Standard"
- Interviewer: Yoshiki Hidaka; Researcher of Hudson Hudson Institute
The economic conditions of the U.S. is deteriorating day after day. The symbol of such crisis is struggling of the U.S. auto industry, for your ref.>"Twilight of the Detroit Big-3"
In addition, it is very likely that current fiasco isn't a issue of economy, but general decline of the U.S. economy.
Under such conditions, eligible American voters picked up the first colored president, Barack Obama, as their 44th president, for your ref.>"The 44th U.S. President Barack Obama"
1st. Section with Mr. Donohue. How will Obama be able to fix economy?
- In order to fix economy, Mr. Obama must take 3 measures.
- No. 1. He must take strong economic stimulus measures.
- No. 2. He must not let labor unions do a selfish things.
- No. 2. He must pursue free trade decisively.
NOTE;
It is easy to say "Obama must take strong and effective economic stimulous measures." The Problem is "what & how" he will do so concretely.
Incumbent President George W. Bush has already taken some measures such as "bail out scheme" of the financial institutions. But he has already been a lame duck so that Bush can't take measures anymore.
In order to make clear that the incumbent administration is responsible for the current conditions and secure free hand when he takes office next year, Mr. Obama is likely not to want to be involved in the deliberation and decision making at present.
But the financial fiasco started last summer has already been spilling over and eroding real economy. And the crisis of the U.S. auto giants is awfully serious.
As the result, Mr.Obama can't but helped to concern in settlement of the Big-3 rescue scheme.
In addition, if president-elect Obama execute maga fiscal measures to boost up economy, massive issuance of treasury bonds are unavoidable that make get worse the fiscal decifit.
2nd. Section with Mr. Donohue. The U.S. houses will lean toward protectionism.
- Power of anti-free trade is increasing.
- Considerable number of pro-free trade lawmakers were retired of lost in the last general election.
- Next year, the number of unemployment is to increase, and protectionism will get momentum.
NOTE;
In general, the Democrats is more anti-Japan and pro-China than the Republicants. Even though, reenact of "Japan-bashing" or "Japan-passing" isn't so worried.
First, it isn't Japan but China that marks the largest trade surplus with the U.S. Second, the U.S. needs Japan money, for your ref.>"Rising sun, Japan, again"
3rd. Section with Mr. Donohue. How will US$ turn out from now on?
- Foreign exchange rate of US$ can't be decided by a U.S. president alone.
- Exchange rate is decided by industrial sector, the Houses and mass-communication.
- The U.S. has already in a recession phase completely.
NOTE;
It is a little bit strange that Mr. Donahue didn't contain "market" in elements that decide exchange rate. US$ is not only a world key currency but also the U.S. national one.
So his remark indicates that exchange rate of US$ is decided politically at least partly based on the U.S. national interests.
Anyway, economic conditions in the U.S. has already in critical mode, for your ref.>"Crisis of the U.S."
4th. Section with Mr. Barnes. Does Mr. Obama have leadership?
- Obama has never showed leadership until now.
- Obama doesn't have power to pursue free trade.
- Obama will become a weak president just like the 39th Jimmy Carter.
NOTE;
Mr. Obama is now progressing personel picking up of the new adminmistration. But new team is to face tough conditions just after its launch in the next January, for your ref.>"Obama's Treasury nominee, A reassuring figure for Treasury" & "Hillary Clinton & Barack Obama, Launching Hillary at the world"
5th. Section with Mr. Hunt. Why Americans selected Mr. Obama as their next president?
- Minorities, persons more than 29-year old and intelligent workers voted for Mr. Obama.
- Mr. Obama is more reliable than Mr. McCain when it comes to bail-out of financial institutions.
- If tangible results aren't realized within one year, Mr. Obama will face prblems of losing public support.
Opinion; Declining world key currency -- US$ part-2
Last year, I wrote about the status of US$ as a world key currency, for your ref.>"Declining world key currency -- US$"
This time, let me talk about this issue again because wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and subprime fiasco have are putting US$ in a shaky state day after day.
The original Bretton Woods meeting was held in New Hampshire in 1944 that establish a post-WW2 economic structure for the capitalist world -- agreed to establish the IMF, the World Bank. And in particular it made US$ the world key currency tacitly.
In other words, the Great Britain that completely depended on the U.S. to continue to battle against Germany agreed to hand over the position of the world hegemony to the U.S.
The U.S. accounted for more than half of the world output when the WW2 ended. And the U.S. was the strongest country militarily.
But due to the momentum -- I mean inertia effect of the legacy of the British Empire -- complete collapse of the Sterling Block was in 1956 due to the failure of the Suez Crisis, for your ref.>"終わりの始まり"
"Bretton Woods Agreements" was jolted in 1971 by the "Nixon Shock" that the US$ declared to cut relation between its currency and gold.
But after that, US$ has continued to be the world only key currency because there was no alternative to the U.S. as the world hegemony.
Of course, there was the Soviet Union as a leader of the communism camp to compete against the U.S. during the Cold War. But in fact, the national power of the Soviet wasn't enough to co-share the world hegemony with the U.S.
Anyway, there is no global agreement to make US$ as a world key currency, but it is custom that the currency of the hegemony is considered to be a key currency.
Essential elements of a hegemony are military power, economic power and political power. The Soviet excessively leaned to military while the U.S. was balanced three elements well.
So even after the Nixon Shock, as the U.S. has been the world only hegemony without challenger, US$ has been the only candidate to be a key currency.
Especially, after the collapse of the Soviet in 1991, the U.S. was the only super power in the world. In particular, since the Bush administration, the U.S. became arrogance and puffed up too much.
Such attitude was described "unilateralism." Namely, world was under uni-polar dominance structure under the U.S. hegemony.
But finally, the position of US$ as a key currency is rapidly declining, for your ref.>"米国の覇権、基軸通貨としてのドル"
On Nov. 14th and 15th, the leaders of G20 -- traditional world leading countries of G8 plus emerging economies -- gathered in Washington, DC, for an economic summit.
The increase of the number from 8 to 20 itself shows decline of the status and dignity of the U.S.
For your ref.>"The global economic summit, After the fall" & "The G20 rises to the challenge" & "The G20 summit in Washington, DC. Not a bad weekend's work"
Japan -- a puppet of the U.S. since the end of WW2 -- shows intention to support "US$ key currency structure," the French President Nicolas Sarkozy said that "US$ no longer can claims to be the only world key currency."
Probably, his remarks include showmanship for the sake of domestic apeal -- Frence traditionally intends to confront against the U.S. such as Gaullisme.
Indeed, economy in Europe isn't so good and its currency EURO isn't strong, for your ref.>"Economic gloom in Europe, The eurozone's first recession" & "Politics & the recession. Bigger, wider, deeper"
But in genenral, the dignity of the U.S. as a hegemony is falling at a considerable pace.
The Iraq war, after all, is to end only wasting the U.S. national power. The U.S. has already injected vast amount of money and milirary resource into the Iraqi desert only to damage itself.
The U.S. is to fail to establish a stable democratic pro-U.S. regime, for your ref.>"Out of Iraq at last" & "Iraq & America, Iraq boots out the Americans" & "America & Iraq. Well, is it victory or humiliation?"
The war in Afghanistan is not so rosy too, for your ref.>"翻訳：アフガニスタンにおける勝利"
In addition, the U.S. economy is deteriorating at a pace more than forecasted, for your ref.>"揺らぐ米国の金融本位主義"
In particular, the main engines of the U.S. economy -- individual consuming and the Wall Street -- are sufferring serious damage, for your ref.>"Job cuts at Citigroup, Heads will roll at Citi" & "Citigroup, Singing the blues" & "Citigroup's rescue, A lifeline for Citigroup" & "Spending & the economy, The end of the affair"
It is true that wastful consumption of Americans has been a locomotive of the world economy of a few decades. But it must be the time for them to fix their such custom, for your ref.>"Debt & deflation, Depressing times"
It is true that desire of human being is an engine of capitalism. But too much is as bad as too little, isn't it? For your ref.>"Coaxing a turnabout in our 'animal spirits'"
It is well said that "Innovation & Invention" backed by frontier spirit is the secret of strength of the U.S. But is it still alive? For your ref.>Innovation in America, A gathering storm?
Anyway, in short, the real crisis the U.S. is facing now isn't a economic recession but bold decline of its hegemony. The crisis of US$ as a world key currency is nothing more than a side effect of a crisis of collapse of the U.S. hegemony.
Namely, Mr. Obama's true duty is to fix and rebuilt of the U.S. hegemony that is seriously damaged by military failure and economic one, for your ref.>"Reviving Pax Americana" & "If America fades, who will lead the world?"
Will he be albe to fix the U.S.? At least, I hope that Mr. Obama will be able to withdraw from Iraq without making Iraq and the whole Middle East falling into chaos.
For your ref.>Burst of U.S. bubble arouses old specters
>Connecting the solutions while there's time
>America's economy, Adding to the stimulus
>The world economy, The perils of incrementalism
>Mr. Obama steps up
>The Senate, Can the Democrats hit 60?
>Obama's security line-up, The O team
>From the archive, How not to pick a team (again)
>America's carmakers, Back again
>America's economy, A growing line of the jobless
>America's chance to change course on Cuba
>Obama and the vets: caring for a generation
>Obama may press Japan
>Will Europe rise to the Obama opportunity?
>America & the Middle East, How to learn from history
>Re-training America's workers, The people puzzle
"Return to the top"
0
- Interviewee: Thomas J. Donohue. President and CEO, U.S. Chamber of Commerce
- Interviewee: Albert R. Hunt; Executive editor for Washington at Bloomberg
- Interviewee: Frederic W. Barnes; Executive editor of the news publication "The Weekly Standard"
- Interviewer: Yoshiki Hidaka; Researcher of Hudson Hudson Institute
The economic conditions of the U.S. is deteriorating day after day. The symbol of such crisis is struggling of the U.S. auto industry, for your ref.>"Twilight of the Detroit Big-3"
In addition, it is very likely that current fiasco isn't a issue of economy, but general decline of the U.S. economy.
Under such conditions, eligible American voters picked up the first colored president, Barack Obama, as their 44th president, for your ref.>"The 44th U.S. President Barack Obama"
1st. Section with Mr. Donohue. How will Obama be able to fix economy?
- In order to fix economy, Mr. Obama must take 3 measures.
- No. 1. He must take strong economic stimulus measures.
- No. 2. He must not let labor unions do a selfish things.
- No. 2. He must pursue free trade decisively.
NOTE;
It is easy to say "Obama must take strong and effective economic stimulous measures." The Problem is "what & how" he will do so concretely.
Incumbent President George W. Bush has already taken some measures such as "bail out scheme" of the financial institutions. But he has already been a lame duck so that Bush can't take measures anymore.
In order to make clear that the incumbent administration is responsible for the current conditions and secure free hand when he takes office next year, Mr. Obama is likely not to want to be involved in the deliberation and decision making at present.
But the financial fiasco started last summer has already been spilling over and eroding real economy. And the crisis of the U.S. auto giants is awfully serious.
As the result, Mr.Obama can't but helped to concern in settlement of the Big-3 rescue scheme.
In addition, if president-elect Obama execute maga fiscal measures to boost up economy, massive issuance of treasury bonds are unavoidable that make get worse the fiscal decifit.
2nd. Section with Mr. Donohue. The U.S. houses will lean toward protectionism.
- Power of anti-free trade is increasing.
- Considerable number of pro-free trade lawmakers were retired of lost in the last general election.
- Next year, the number of unemployment is to increase, and protectionism will get momentum.
NOTE;
In general, the Democrats is more anti-Japan and pro-China than the Republicants. Even though, reenact of "Japan-bashing" or "Japan-passing" isn't so worried.
First, it isn't Japan but China that marks the largest trade surplus with the U.S. Second, the U.S. needs Japan money, for your ref.>"Rising sun, Japan, again"
3rd. Section with Mr. Donohue. How will US$ turn out from now on?
- Foreign exchange rate of US$ can't be decided by a U.S. president alone.
- Exchange rate is decided by industrial sector, the Houses and mass-communication.
- The U.S. has already in a recession phase completely.
NOTE;
It is a little bit strange that Mr. Donahue didn't contain "market" in elements that decide exchange rate. US$ is not only a world key currency but also the U.S. national one.
So his remark indicates that exchange rate of US$ is decided politically at least partly based on the U.S. national interests.
Anyway, economic conditions in the U.S. has already in critical mode, for your ref.>"Crisis of the U.S."
4th. Section with Mr. Barnes. Does Mr. Obama have leadership?
- Obama has never showed leadership until now.
- Obama doesn't have power to pursue free trade.
- Obama will become a weak president just like the 39th Jimmy Carter.
NOTE;
Mr. Obama is now progressing personel picking up of the new adminmistration. But new team is to face tough conditions just after its launch in the next January, for your ref.>"Obama's Treasury nominee, A reassuring figure for Treasury" & "Hillary Clinton & Barack Obama, Launching Hillary at the world"
5th. Section with Mr. Hunt. Why Americans selected Mr. Obama as their next president?
- Minorities, persons more than 29-year old and intelligent workers voted for Mr. Obama.
- Mr. Obama is more reliable than Mr. McCain when it comes to bail-out of financial institutions.
- If tangible results aren't realized within one year, Mr. Obama will face prblems of losing public support.
Opinion; Declining world key currency -- US$ part-2
Last year, I wrote about the status of US$ as a world key currency, for your ref.>"Declining world key currency -- US$"
This time, let me talk about this issue again because wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and subprime fiasco have are putting US$ in a shaky state day after day.
The original Bretton Woods meeting was held in New Hampshire in 1944 that establish a post-WW2 economic structure for the capitalist world -- agreed to establish the IMF, the World Bank. And in particular it made US$ the world key currency tacitly.
In other words, the Great Britain that completely depended on the U.S. to continue to battle against Germany agreed to hand over the position of the world hegemony to the U.S.
The U.S. accounted for more than half of the world output when the WW2 ended. And the U.S. was the strongest country militarily.
But due to the momentum -- I mean inertia effect of the legacy of the British Empire -- complete collapse of the Sterling Block was in 1956 due to the failure of the Suez Crisis, for your ref.>"終わりの始まり"
"Bretton Woods Agreements" was jolted in 1971 by the "Nixon Shock" that the US$ declared to cut relation between its currency and gold.
But after that, US$ has continued to be the world only key currency because there was no alternative to the U.S. as the world hegemony.
Of course, there was the Soviet Union as a leader of the communism camp to compete against the U.S. during the Cold War. But in fact, the national power of the Soviet wasn't enough to co-share the world hegemony with the U.S.
Anyway, there is no global agreement to make US$ as a world key currency, but it is custom that the currency of the hegemony is considered to be a key currency.
Essential elements of a hegemony are military power, economic power and political power. The Soviet excessively leaned to military while the U.S. was balanced three elements well.
So even after the Nixon Shock, as the U.S. has been the world only hegemony without challenger, US$ has been the only candidate to be a key currency.
Especially, after the collapse of the Soviet in 1991, the U.S. was the only super power in the world. In particular, since the Bush administration, the U.S. became arrogance and puffed up too much.
Such attitude was described "unilateralism." Namely, world was under uni-polar dominance structure under the U.S. hegemony.
But finally, the position of US$ as a key currency is rapidly declining, for your ref.>"米国の覇権、基軸通貨としてのドル"
On Nov. 14th and 15th, the leaders of G20 -- traditional world leading countries of G8 plus emerging economies -- gathered in Washington, DC, for an economic summit.
The increase of the number from 8 to 20 itself shows decline of the status and dignity of the U.S.
For your ref.>"The global economic summit, After the fall" & "The G20 rises to the challenge" & "The G20 summit in Washington, DC. Not a bad weekend's work"
Japan -- a puppet of the U.S. since the end of WW2 -- shows intention to support "US$ key currency structure," the French President Nicolas Sarkozy said that "US$ no longer can claims to be the only world key currency."
Probably, his remarks include showmanship for the sake of domestic apeal -- Frence traditionally intends to confront against the U.S. such as Gaullisme.
Indeed, economy in Europe isn't so good and its currency EURO isn't strong, for your ref.>"Economic gloom in Europe, The eurozone's first recession" & "Politics & the recession. Bigger, wider, deeper"
But in genenral, the dignity of the U.S. as a hegemony is falling at a considerable pace.
The Iraq war, after all, is to end only wasting the U.S. national power. The U.S. has already injected vast amount of money and milirary resource into the Iraqi desert only to damage itself.
The U.S. is to fail to establish a stable democratic pro-U.S. regime, for your ref.>"Out of Iraq at last" & "Iraq & America, Iraq boots out the Americans" & "America & Iraq. Well, is it victory or humiliation?"
The war in Afghanistan is not so rosy too, for your ref.>"翻訳：アフガニスタンにおける勝利"
In addition, the U.S. economy is deteriorating at a pace more than forecasted, for your ref.>"揺らぐ米国の金融本位主義"
In particular, the main engines of the U.S. economy -- individual consuming and the Wall Street -- are sufferring serious damage, for your ref.>"Job cuts at Citigroup, Heads will roll at Citi" & "Citigroup, Singing the blues" & "Citigroup's rescue, A lifeline for Citigroup" & "Spending & the economy, The end of the affair"
It is true that wastful consumption of Americans has been a locomotive of the world economy of a few decades. But it must be the time for them to fix their such custom, for your ref.>"Debt & deflation, Depressing times"
It is true that desire of human being is an engine of capitalism. But too much is as bad as too little, isn't it? For your ref.>"Coaxing a turnabout in our 'animal spirits'"
It is well said that "Innovation & Invention" backed by frontier spirit is the secret of strength of the U.S. But is it still alive? For your ref.>Innovation in America, A gathering storm?
Anyway, in short, the real crisis the U.S. is facing now isn't a economic recession but bold decline of its hegemony. The crisis of US$ as a world key currency is nothing more than a side effect of a crisis of collapse of the U.S. hegemony.
Namely, Mr. Obama's true duty is to fix and rebuilt of the U.S. hegemony that is seriously damaged by military failure and economic one, for your ref.>"Reviving Pax Americana" & "If America fades, who will lead the world?"
Will he be albe to fix the U.S.? At least, I hope that Mr. Obama will be able to withdraw from Iraq without making Iraq and the whole Middle East falling into chaos.
For your ref.>Burst of U.S. bubble arouses old specters
>Connecting the solutions while there's time
>America's economy, Adding to the stimulus
>The world economy, The perils of incrementalism
>Mr. Obama steps up
>The Senate, Can the Democrats hit 60?
>Obama's security line-up, The O team
>From the archive, How not to pick a team (again)
>America's carmakers, Back again
>America's economy, A growing line of the jobless
>America's chance to change course on Cuba
>Obama and the vets: caring for a generation
>Obama may press Japan
>Will Europe rise to the Obama opportunity?
>America & the Middle East, How to learn from history
>Re-training America's workers, The people puzzle
"Return to the top"
0
