2009/6/27 11：17
Signs of recovery in Asia and other emerging economies
Originally, current economic fiasco was ignited by collapse of housing bubbles in the U.S. and Europe.
But as emerging economies have been achieving their economic growth via exports to developed countries, they aren't free from bubble bursts in the U.S. and Europe.
Typical example of such countries is Japan although it didn't participated in the housing party hit hard by slowing down of exports to the U.S., ref.(>"Vulnerability of Japan's economy")
In addition, apart from Japan to be a highly developed country, other emerging countries depend on investments from western developed countries for the sake of economic growth.
As westerners withdraw their money from emerging economies, not only stock markets in emerging economy crushed promptly but also economic activities in them were restricted due to credit crunch.
When it comes to stock market crush, even Japan isn't the exception.
In brief, so called "de-coupling" logic vanished and "re-coupling" came in immediately due to both slowing down of exports to developed countries and flowing out of foreign money.
Typical example of this economic slump is China that was once expected as a new locomotive of the world economy.
But just after subprime fiasco emerged in the U.S. and Europe, China's exports slowed down and its economic activities were forced to be stagnated.
Namely, China, that's GDP is around one-third of the U.S., was still not enough to replace the U.S. as a locomotive of the world economy.
Economic conditions of other emerging economies are much the same of China's. For example, Russian economy fell into recession due to crush of prices of energy resources and bad influence of the Georgian War.
Economies of other oil exporters, such as Bubei, were hit hard too, ref.(>"Natural resources & commodity")
When it comes to Asia, other countires are slso in a similar conditions of Japan and China. For example, South Korea was hit hard by the world economic recession.
South Korea's exports slowed down. Both its stock market and foreign exchange market once crushed to the critical level.
In this meaning, as South Korea's economy recovered to some extent, Japan missed perfect opportunity to purchase stocks or firms of South Korea, ref.(>"Perfect opportunity to beat South Korea")
Anyway, as the world economy shows sings of hitting the bottom, it is Asia's emerging economies that seems to lead escape from recession.
Japan's economy, No.1 in Asia, is showing hitting bottom or rather not so robust recovery, ref.(>"Japan's economy; Disastrous, but not hopeless")
But as Japan is a highly developed and matured country, it has no room to achieve robust and energetic recovery, ref.(>"Business in Japan, No exit")
In the shorter rum, it is true there are many agendas Japan must tackle with, ref.(>"Corporate restructuring in Japan, Breaking free")
But even if Japan settle these problems perfectly, burning economic growth just like Japan enjoyed in 1950s and '60s can no longer be expected.
On the contrary, Tokyo shows negative position to progress reforms, ref.(>"Guidelines on fiscal 2010 budget")
In addition, demographic factor is to halt Japan's growth in the longer term, ref.(>"Recovery of birthrate" & "Revised foreign residency rule")
Taking these conditions into consideration, I am forced to conclude that it is impossible for Japan to jump onto the stage as the leading role of the world economy again.
Here, it is China that shows the most significant signs of recovery in Asia to deprive a leading role of the regional economic power from Japan.
Indeed, China's economic growth didn't fall into negative zone in the worst time after subprime fiasco, ref.(>"China is still sound enough, at least in the short run")
Then China is re-accelerating backed by massive fiscal measures to boost domestic demands and prepare for social and industrial infrastructure.
In the developing countries such as China, mega fiscal measures to construct infrastructure are really effective as a dynamo to boost economic growth.
Even there are many troubles and difficulties such as widening gap of haves and haves-not, other emerging econmies are regaining vitality, ref.(>"BRICs, emerging markets and the world economy. Not just straw men" & "The poor and the global crisis, The trail of disaster")
As prices of underground resoirces are recovering, resource-exporters are also re-emerging, ref.(>Mining mergers, Let's dig together" & "Venezuela's oil-dependent economy, Socialism on the never-never")
At present, the problem is whether the world economy has been already bottoming out or not.
If current conditions is nothing more than a temporary landing of deterioration of economy and the world economy will re-start to decline soon, strong signs in Asia could be vanish soon.
It seems to me that such possibility is high so that carelessness must be a powerful enemy, ref.(>"A lull state of the stock markets")
For your ref.>Will Asia's economic recovery lead the way?
>Economic prospects, After the fall
>House prices & the wealth effect, Home discomforts
>Corporate bankruptcies in America, The boom in busts
>Reforming finance: the EU's proposals, Divided by a common market
>Corporate tax, Escaping the shakedown
0
But as emerging economies have been achieving their economic growth via exports to developed countries, they aren't free from bubble bursts in the U.S. and Europe.
Typical example of such countries is Japan although it didn't participated in the housing party hit hard by slowing down of exports to the U.S., ref.(>"Vulnerability of Japan's economy")
In addition, apart from Japan to be a highly developed country, other emerging countries depend on investments from western developed countries for the sake of economic growth.
As westerners withdraw their money from emerging economies, not only stock markets in emerging economy crushed promptly but also economic activities in them were restricted due to credit crunch.
When it comes to stock market crush, even Japan isn't the exception.
In brief, so called "de-coupling" logic vanished and "re-coupling" came in immediately due to both slowing down of exports to developed countries and flowing out of foreign money.
Typical example of this economic slump is China that was once expected as a new locomotive of the world economy.
But just after subprime fiasco emerged in the U.S. and Europe, China's exports slowed down and its economic activities were forced to be stagnated.
Namely, China, that's GDP is around one-third of the U.S., was still not enough to replace the U.S. as a locomotive of the world economy.
Economic conditions of other emerging economies are much the same of China's. For example, Russian economy fell into recession due to crush of prices of energy resources and bad influence of the Georgian War.
Economies of other oil exporters, such as Bubei, were hit hard too, ref.(>"Natural resources & commodity")
When it comes to Asia, other countires are slso in a similar conditions of Japan and China. For example, South Korea was hit hard by the world economic recession.
South Korea's exports slowed down. Both its stock market and foreign exchange market once crushed to the critical level.
In this meaning, as South Korea's economy recovered to some extent, Japan missed perfect opportunity to purchase stocks or firms of South Korea, ref.(>"Perfect opportunity to beat South Korea")
Anyway, as the world economy shows sings of hitting the bottom, it is Asia's emerging economies that seems to lead escape from recession.
Japan's economy, No.1 in Asia, is showing hitting bottom or rather not so robust recovery, ref.(>"Japan's economy; Disastrous, but not hopeless")
But as Japan is a highly developed and matured country, it has no room to achieve robust and energetic recovery, ref.(>"Business in Japan, No exit")
In the shorter rum, it is true there are many agendas Japan must tackle with, ref.(>"Corporate restructuring in Japan, Breaking free")
But even if Japan settle these problems perfectly, burning economic growth just like Japan enjoyed in 1950s and '60s can no longer be expected.
On the contrary, Tokyo shows negative position to progress reforms, ref.(>"Guidelines on fiscal 2010 budget")
In addition, demographic factor is to halt Japan's growth in the longer term, ref.(>"Recovery of birthrate" & "Revised foreign residency rule")
Taking these conditions into consideration, I am forced to conclude that it is impossible for Japan to jump onto the stage as the leading role of the world economy again.
Here, it is China that shows the most significant signs of recovery in Asia to deprive a leading role of the regional economic power from Japan.
Indeed, China's economic growth didn't fall into negative zone in the worst time after subprime fiasco, ref.(>"China is still sound enough, at least in the short run")
Then China is re-accelerating backed by massive fiscal measures to boost domestic demands and prepare for social and industrial infrastructure.
In the developing countries such as China, mega fiscal measures to construct infrastructure are really effective as a dynamo to boost economic growth.
Even there are many troubles and difficulties such as widening gap of haves and haves-not, other emerging econmies are regaining vitality, ref.(>"BRICs, emerging markets and the world economy. Not just straw men" & "The poor and the global crisis, The trail of disaster")
As prices of underground resoirces are recovering, resource-exporters are also re-emerging, ref.(>Mining mergers, Let's dig together" & "Venezuela's oil-dependent economy, Socialism on the never-never")
At present, the problem is whether the world economy has been already bottoming out or not.
If current conditions is nothing more than a temporary landing of deterioration of economy and the world economy will re-start to decline soon, strong signs in Asia could be vanish soon.
It seems to me that such possibility is high so that carelessness must be a powerful enemy, ref.(>"A lull state of the stock markets")
For your ref.>Will Asia's economic recovery lead the way?
>Economic prospects, After the fall
>House prices & the wealth effect, Home discomforts
>Corporate bankruptcies in America, The boom in busts
>Reforming finance: the EU's proposals, Divided by a common market
>Corporate tax, Escaping the shakedown
0
