2009/7/2 1：56
China rising while Japan declining.
In 2009, Japan is to slip down from the position of the world's largest economy only after the U.S. that has kept since 1968 if it goes as it is.
Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry says that China's GDP is to overtake Japan's within 2009, ref.(>"Release of the White Paper on International Economy and Trade 2009")
As one of Japanese nationals, it is really a nuisance reality for me. But even so, I must admit that the fact is a fact.
In the later half of the 20th century, China suffered awful damages and pains due to the late CCP leader Mao Zedong -- "the Great Leap Forward" & "the Cultural Revolution."
Indeed, Mao and his CCP killed tens of millions of his country's people but Beijing now buck-passes its own responsibility to Japan by saying "50 million Chinese were killed by Japanese army in 1930s and 40s."
Far from that. At the time of the "the International Military Tribunal for the Far East," GHQ said that the number was 1.32 million.
Separately from a issue of the economy, we Japanese must understand well about the way of the CCP.
Anyway, while China was drifting in the chaos due to misgovernment of Mao, Japan was progressed reconstruction of its society and industry from ash of a defeat of the WW2, then became the world No.2 economy in 1968.
In 1978, following the death of Mao, Deng Xiaoping launched the "Opening & Liberation of the Country" to reconstruct China's society and economy.
Here, we Japanese should realize that around that time, basic position of Beijing wasn't anti-Japan but pro-Japan because it needed support and cooperation from Japan.
But China once failed in economic growth the (second) Tiananmen Incident in 1989 that the authority crushed pro-democracy demonstrators.
At the time, although western world introduced economic sanctions against Beijing, it was also Japan that helped Beijing via restarted economic cooperation at the very beginning.
But even so, Beijing was revenged with harm for Japan's favor -- Jiang Zemin who succeeded Deng Xiaoping introduced anti-Japan education.
Namely, Jiang Zemin aimed for political survival by advocating nationalism and imputing his own people's resentment for the CCP administration to Japan.
(But it is also true that some anti-Japan left wingers in Japan, such as the Asahi Shinbun, actively utilized, or rather fanned, such moves in their anti-Japan campaign.)
Anyway, with economic support and cooperation from Japan, China soon resumed economic growth.
As the result, western countries also soon restarted their investments in China in order to utilize cheap labor costs, ref.(>"20th anniversary of the Tiananmen Incident")
Namely, in particular at initial stage, China achieved its economic growth via introducing foreign fund and technology from developed countries. In addition, the end of Cold War accelerated such economic activities.
Backed by robust FDI and exports to mainly developed countries, in particular the U.S., China achieved double digit growth almost continuously for more than a decade.
Although both China and Japan were hit hard by perfect economic storm triggered by subprime fiasco, China avoided negative growth while Japan experienced double digit contraction.
In addition, it seems that China has already re-started robust growth backed by mega fiscal economic stimulus measures.
As the result, now is the time for Japan to be being overtaken by China, ref.(>"「わが国経済は底打った」-- 中国・国家統計局副局長"
>"＜調査＞年内にGDPで日本を追い抜くか？半数以上が「実現する」-- 中国" & "「中国の GDP、今年にも日本を上回る」と公式に記述 -- 経済産業省"
>"「課題解決型国家」を目指せ＝中国に抜かれる日本の針路 -- 通商白書"
> 経済産業省は19日の閣議に 2009年版通商白書を報告した。名目 GDP（国内総生産）で世界３位の中国が来年には日本を追い抜くとの国際通貨基金（IMF）の経済予測を踏まえ、「『世界２位の経済大国』としての（日本の）地位も残りわずか」と、日中逆転に初めて言及。
> その上で、日本の針路として「課題解決型国家」を掲げ、地球温暖化をはじめ世界が直面する問題の解決に貢献することで存在感を示すよう訴えた。
> 白書は、日本は「ヒト、モノ、カネ、ワザ、チエの提供」を通じ、「世界の課題を解決しつつ、日本の利益にもなる」ビジネスモデルを構築すべきだと主張。こうした課題解決型国家の役割として、１）太陽光発電、エコカー、省エネ機器、水処理など先進技術を海外に普及、２）開発途上国の社会資本整備や資源開発へ資金を供給 -- などを例示した。)
Unfortunately -- I mean from a standpoint of Japan -- the fact is a fact. China is rising while Japan is declining.
Even thought there are some consolations -- such as "when it comes to GDP per capita, Japan still overwhelms China"-- those sound like a "sour grapes."
Even though China has many troubles -- such as environmental issues and widening gap of haves and haves-not -- it is absolute fact that China's GDP is to overtake Japan's within short.
In addition, China is shifting from light-industry to heavy or high-tech industry. China is also trying to modify itself from a mere assembler to a highly sophisticated economic player with state of the art technology.
This rising of China is a main driving force of Asia's rising, ref.(>"世界の株式時価総額、アジアが14年ぶりに欧州を逆転 ６月末"
> 金融危機後の株価の回復をアジアの新興国が先導する構図が鮮明だ。経済成長への期待感からこの半年で中国やインドの株価指数は５割以上上昇。この結果、６月末の株式時価総額の地域別構成比はアジアが全体の３割強に上昇し、約14年ぶりに欧州を上回ったようだ。
> 一方で株価の反発が鈍い日本の構成比は１割弱と、世界市場での存在感の低迷が続いている。
> 国際取引所連盟（WFE）の最新データによると、アジア（太平洋地域含む）の時価総額は５月末時点で、昨年末比 26%増の11.6兆ドル。欧州（アフリカ・中東含む）は11%増の10.51兆ドルで、アジアのほうが大きくなった。)
I must say again that good or worse, both rising China and declining Japan are reality. In addition, it is difficult, or almost impossible, to halt or reverse this movement.
At least hitherto, China has succeeded to suppress anti-CCP movement, and sudden and explosive anti-government treasonable acts can't be expected in the near future, ref.(>"China's internet censors, Dammed if you do")
So Japan must reconsider how to adopt itself to reality of rising China.
0
Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry says that China's GDP is to overtake Japan's within 2009, ref.(>"Release of the White Paper on International Economy and Trade 2009")
As one of Japanese nationals, it is really a nuisance reality for me. But even so, I must admit that the fact is a fact.
In the later half of the 20th century, China suffered awful damages and pains due to the late CCP leader Mao Zedong -- "the Great Leap Forward" & "the Cultural Revolution."
Indeed, Mao and his CCP killed tens of millions of his country's people but Beijing now buck-passes its own responsibility to Japan by saying "50 million Chinese were killed by Japanese army in 1930s and 40s."
Far from that. At the time of the "the International Military Tribunal for the Far East," GHQ said that the number was 1.32 million.
Separately from a issue of the economy, we Japanese must understand well about the way of the CCP.
Anyway, while China was drifting in the chaos due to misgovernment of Mao, Japan was progressed reconstruction of its society and industry from ash of a defeat of the WW2, then became the world No.2 economy in 1968.
In 1978, following the death of Mao, Deng Xiaoping launched the "Opening & Liberation of the Country" to reconstruct China's society and economy.
Here, we Japanese should realize that around that time, basic position of Beijing wasn't anti-Japan but pro-Japan because it needed support and cooperation from Japan.
But China once failed in economic growth the (second) Tiananmen Incident in 1989 that the authority crushed pro-democracy demonstrators.
At the time, although western world introduced economic sanctions against Beijing, it was also Japan that helped Beijing via restarted economic cooperation at the very beginning.
But even so, Beijing was revenged with harm for Japan's favor -- Jiang Zemin who succeeded Deng Xiaoping introduced anti-Japan education.
Namely, Jiang Zemin aimed for political survival by advocating nationalism and imputing his own people's resentment for the CCP administration to Japan.
(But it is also true that some anti-Japan left wingers in Japan, such as the Asahi Shinbun, actively utilized, or rather fanned, such moves in their anti-Japan campaign.)
Anyway, with economic support and cooperation from Japan, China soon resumed economic growth.
As the result, western countries also soon restarted their investments in China in order to utilize cheap labor costs, ref.(>"20th anniversary of the Tiananmen Incident")
Namely, in particular at initial stage, China achieved its economic growth via introducing foreign fund and technology from developed countries. In addition, the end of Cold War accelerated such economic activities.
Backed by robust FDI and exports to mainly developed countries, in particular the U.S., China achieved double digit growth almost continuously for more than a decade.
Although both China and Japan were hit hard by perfect economic storm triggered by subprime fiasco, China avoided negative growth while Japan experienced double digit contraction.
In addition, it seems that China has already re-started robust growth backed by mega fiscal economic stimulus measures.
As the result, now is the time for Japan to be being overtaken by China, ref.(>"「わが国経済は底打った」-- 中国・国家統計局副局長"
>"＜調査＞年内にGDPで日本を追い抜くか？半数以上が「実現する」-- 中国" & "「中国の GDP、今年にも日本を上回る」と公式に記述 -- 経済産業省"
>"「課題解決型国家」を目指せ＝中国に抜かれる日本の針路 -- 通商白書"
> 経済産業省は19日の閣議に 2009年版通商白書を報告した。名目 GDP（国内総生産）で世界３位の中国が来年には日本を追い抜くとの国際通貨基金（IMF）の経済予測を踏まえ、「『世界２位の経済大国』としての（日本の）地位も残りわずか」と、日中逆転に初めて言及。
> その上で、日本の針路として「課題解決型国家」を掲げ、地球温暖化をはじめ世界が直面する問題の解決に貢献することで存在感を示すよう訴えた。
> 白書は、日本は「ヒト、モノ、カネ、ワザ、チエの提供」を通じ、「世界の課題を解決しつつ、日本の利益にもなる」ビジネスモデルを構築すべきだと主張。こうした課題解決型国家の役割として、１）太陽光発電、エコカー、省エネ機器、水処理など先進技術を海外に普及、２）開発途上国の社会資本整備や資源開発へ資金を供給 -- などを例示した。)
Unfortunately -- I mean from a standpoint of Japan -- the fact is a fact. China is rising while Japan is declining.
Even thought there are some consolations -- such as "when it comes to GDP per capita, Japan still overwhelms China"-- those sound like a "sour grapes."
Even though China has many troubles -- such as environmental issues and widening gap of haves and haves-not -- it is absolute fact that China's GDP is to overtake Japan's within short.
In addition, China is shifting from light-industry to heavy or high-tech industry. China is also trying to modify itself from a mere assembler to a highly sophisticated economic player with state of the art technology.
This rising of China is a main driving force of Asia's rising, ref.(>"世界の株式時価総額、アジアが14年ぶりに欧州を逆転 ６月末"
> 金融危機後の株価の回復をアジアの新興国が先導する構図が鮮明だ。経済成長への期待感からこの半年で中国やインドの株価指数は５割以上上昇。この結果、６月末の株式時価総額の地域別構成比はアジアが全体の３割強に上昇し、約14年ぶりに欧州を上回ったようだ。
> 一方で株価の反発が鈍い日本の構成比は１割弱と、世界市場での存在感の低迷が続いている。
> 国際取引所連盟（WFE）の最新データによると、アジア（太平洋地域含む）の時価総額は５月末時点で、昨年末比 26%増の11.6兆ドル。欧州（アフリカ・中東含む）は11%増の10.51兆ドルで、アジアのほうが大きくなった。)
I must say again that good or worse, both rising China and declining Japan are reality. In addition, it is difficult, or almost impossible, to halt or reverse this movement.
At least hitherto, China has succeeded to suppress anti-CCP movement, and sudden and explosive anti-government treasonable acts can't be expected in the near future, ref.(>"China's internet censors, Dammed if you do")
So Japan must reconsider how to adopt itself to reality of rising China.
0
