2009/10/6 18：41
Beginning of the Hatoyama Administration
Half a month passed since the >"Launch of DPJ-led new government" that broke around half a century of the LDP one-party ruling only except in 1993.
Needless to say, an "administrative change" itself is a neither purpose nor goal for the DPJ and new Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama. It is only a "measure" and "start."
Now, what does matter is what the DPJ and Mr. Hatoyama will do from now on. Let's analysis policy measures of the DPJ at a first glance.
Generally speaking, I don't support the new DPJ-led administration because the real figure of the DPJ is the now defunct SDPJ -- anti-Japan left wingers.
It is very likely that the new administration will launch anti-Japan measures based on masochism histrical view one after another,
As they are traitors that they want to apology and grovel to so called specific Asian countries -- China and Koreas -- as much as possible. So when it comes to historical issue, "hopeless".
But even though I'm not a supporter of the DPJ, I must accept a fact that "it is the DPJ that now rules Japan."
Here, it is unfair attitude to criticize the DPJ without calm and subjective observation and analysis. At first, we should make efforts to analyze and evaluate both favorable and bad elements in DPJ's measures.
What kind of hope and expectation we could (couldn't) have to the new Hatoyama administration?
U.S.-Japan bilateral relation
Due to his essay run by a monthly opinion magazine "VOICE," new Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, getting worse of U.S-Japan relation was concerned.
But Mr. Hatoyama made his diplomatic debut without any major troubles, ref.(>"Dancing around delicate issues")
But there is no doubt that Washington is offendeded by that essay. So friendly atmosphere between Mr. Obama and Mr. Hatoyama was nothing more than Diplomatic language.
Japan enjoyed favorable position -- a puppet of the U.S. -- since the end of the WW2.
Although Japan experienced humiliations, Japan has enjoyed economic prosperity under an umbrella of the pax-Americana.
As long as U.S. hegemony is unshakable, Japan should stay under current position. But reality is that U.S. hegemony is shaking due to military failures in Iraq and Afghanistan and subprime fiasco.
Both Party Leader and its Secretary General -- Mr. Hatoyama and Mr. Ozawa -- express their intention to make U.S-Japan bilateral relation to be "equal partnership".
It is "forgetting Japan's place" to seek equal partnership with the U.S. But now is just an opportunity to change from a "boss-follower relation" to "brotherhood one."
Here, the problem is that the DPJ really wants Japan to (truly) independent from the U.S?
I doubt that. They expressed that from a standpoint of an opposition. Namely, their true intention was to "oppose any acts by the ruling LDP" without responsibility.
Now they are a ruling so that they should take responsibility about their acts. Namely, they should realize Japan's place.
As we nationals are too accustomed to be a puppet of the U.S., we need rehabilitation at first that will take considerable time.
It is too early to seek complete independence from the U.S. For example, many Japanese are drifting in a daydream of "peace-at-any-price mind-set."
They don't recognize the fact that "the peace for more than 6-decade is owned to not Article 9th of the Constitution but U.S-Japan Security Pact and SDF."
As Japan has yet been ready to (truly) independent that the DPJ should maintain good relation with the U.S. Needless to say refueling mission in the Indian Ocean is "must."
Climate Change
Mr. Hatoyama released a bold plan to reduce CO2 emission and be praised by world leaders, ref.(>"Japan's new climate initiative raises hopes")
But when it comes to the international community and diplomacy, we shouldn't take foreign people's praise straightly. It is not "diplomacy" to make dialogue sincerely and honestly.
We should always be conscious that "Why foreign people praise us? Are there any king of hidden meanings?"
To begin with, the Kyoto Protocol was recognized in Japan as a "unfair treaty" because it sets reference year to 1990.
In 1990, Japan's industry finished energy conservative investment nearly completely. So it is tough for Japan to further reduce energy consumption and CO2 emission from 1990 level.
In Europe, the Berlin Wall collapsed in 1990 that divided Europe to two regions. In the Kyoto Protocol negotiation, the EU insisted on the idea that "Europe is one entity."
In ex. communism eastern Europe, industrial facilities and equipments are so obsolete, it is relatively easy for the EU to reduce energy consumption and CO2 emission via introducing new technology and state of the art facilities into eastern Europe.
In addition, the U.S., China and India aren't restricted by the Kyoto Protocol.
In short, Japan was force to take unfairly heavy burden due to failure of diplomatic tactics.
This time, Mr. Hatoyama expressed a plan to reduce CO2 emission by 25% from 1990 levels by 2020. In other words, Mr. Hatoyama set a upper limit of the size of Japan's industrial activities.
So it is only natural that other representatives were delighted to hear Japan's industrial self suicide.
This is the real meaning of praises Mr. Hatoyama got in NY. So we Japanese must be not in high spirits but recognize the seriousness well.
Of course, we can't ignore climate change issue, ref.(>"Why joint initiatives on climate will likely fail" & "Losing control of the heat")
And possibility of dramatic technological break through and change of social system can't be denied as the result of imposition of strict regulation.
But even so, Mr. Hatoyama lacked sense of the "national interests." For domestic industrial sector, Mr. Hatoyama's performance and showman-hip are nothing more than an "own goal."
Fiscal reconstruction and economic stimulation
It is worth to be sympathized that current economic crisis has nothing to do with the DPJ. But even so, the DPJ made election pledge to improve economic and employment conditions dramatically.
Once it promised, it is the DPJ's responsibility to realize that. Indeed, the DPJ is considering measures, ref.(>"No letup on stimulus policies")
There are both good information and bad one about economy, ref.(>"Record price tumble sparks deflation fears" & "CORPORATE SENTIMENT UP, Corporate sentiment on recovery track")
And it is possible to tackle with structural reforms in a crisis, ref.(>"Let's turn crisis into chance")
But as the DPJ forms an alliance with left-winger parties, it can't ignore public welfare measures that costs much, ref.(>"Health care for older seniors")
It is impossible to realize both fiscal reconstruction and improvement of social welfare system. It is a matter of an "alternative."
In addition, the DPJ promised in its election manifesto to offer direct subsidiaries to farmers, ref.(>"RICE FARMING. Rice -- a staple of unstable future, funds?")
It is possible only paradise or utopia to realize both fiscal reconstruction and throwing a lot of money to secure voters' support.
Generally speaking, the DPJ's plans are too rosy that they aren't plausible to meet.
It seems that the DPJ doesn't realize toughness in realization of election pledges because it was an opposition too long. But it is too early to conclude.
It is unwritten rule that we should refrain severe criticism just after launch of a new administration at least for honeymoon 100 days. Let's observe that for the time being.
Aging and shrinking population
Japan's population is aging and shrinking ,ref.(>"Grayer population" & "One in four women in Japan is at least 65 years old, government estimates")
So when it comes to current sluggish economy, whole of that can't be explained by economic cyclic factor or "Subprime Tsunami" from abroad.
It is very likely that current economic slowing down is due to Japan's demographic factor at least partly.
Namely, what Japan is now facing up is not economic deterioration but economic -- or national -- decline.
Indeed, movement of land prices supports my logic, ref.(>"Nationwide land prices crumble at fastest pace in five years") This can't be explained wholly by burst of mini-bubble in urban areas.
As the number of people who utilize lands and real estates declines, it is only natural that so do prices of them based on "DCF" or "Discounted Cash Flow Method."
The DPJ made election pledges to offer \26,000 of child-subsidiary to realize a society to promote giving birth.
In addition, the DPJ promised to make public compulsory education free of charge to reduce cost of child-caring. Good! I completely support these measures.
The problem is, at first, whether the DPJ will be able to secure necessary fund sources to conduct these measures. Namely, "you can't get a stocking off a bare foot."
Second, will eligible voters support these measures? Although the LDP also realized that such kind of measures are "must," it couldn't implemented that because that weren't effective to secure vote.
In democratic system, policy measure are prone to be short-sighted because populism is effective to secure support from eligible voters.
On the other hand, national foresighted plans that the general public aren't interested are likely to be neglected.
In this meaning, the DPJ-led new administration is in a favorable position to tackle longer term measures of this kind.
The problem is whether "tackling by the DPJ will be sustainable or not."
I'm afraid that if it finds out that it is meaningless to secure support from general public, the DPJ would lose is enthusiasm to tackle with demographic issue. And it can't be helped but because the DPJ is now not an opposition but ruling party.
Red card agasint wasteful public works
The Hatoyama administration has been in full gear since it took power last month in trying to fulfill one of its key election pledges -- halting wasteful public projects.
The Yamba Dam is a symbol of that, ref.(>"To build a dam, or not" & "MAEHARA VISITS, Maehara visits Yamba Dam site" & "Dam cancellation leaves local residents high and dry")
Now, it seems to me that the Yamba Dam is a neither industrial and economic issue nor disaster prevention and water-utilization one.
It has already become a issue of "face" or "mien tzu." As the' Yamba Dam is one of the center pieces of DPJ's election pledges so that it doesn't close if it goes down.
Anyway, good or worse, there is no doubt that there are many wasteful public projects across the country. And the DPJ is relatively easy to halt them because it has less vested interests than the LDP.
I expect the DPJ to avoid "anticlimax" in modifying a "construction of public works country."
Free of charge highway driving
Just after the victory in the general election, the DPJ toned down its an election pledge to realize free of charge utilization of highway.
Ha, ha, ha, the DPJ conducted violation of an election pledge even before a launch of the administration.
There are both pros and cons in free of charge utilization in tactical level. But we should ignore such kind of trivial issues because the 21th century isn't a period of vehicles.
Indeed, the 20th century was surely an era of automobile in both industrial meaning and social one.
But the 21th century is to be a time of railways. So the new administration should prioritize "modal shift" as a national foresighted plan, ref.(>'"Modal Shift" in transportation system')
To begin with, how the DPJ will reduce CO2 emission by 25% while promoting auto utilization? It's an act of madness in my opinion.
U.S.-Japan secret agreement
It is one of the center pieces of the DPJ's election pledges to reveal all facts about U.S.-Japan secret agreements in relation to returning-Okinawa and nuclear weapons in Japan's territory.
Indeed, new foreign minister Mr. Katusya Okuda ordered to investigate them so that we should wait and see for the time being, ref.(>"Probe launched into four secret pacts with U.S." & "U.S.-Japan secret agreement; nuclear weapons in Japan")
Turning around of management of JAL
When it comes to deterioration of operation and finance-conditions of JAL, Japan's national flagship air carrier, I have not so detailed knowledge.
At least, it seems that new transport minister Mr. Seiji Maehara is considering various ways, ref.(>"JAL to shelve foreign capital tieup talks, focus on rehab" & "JAL must face up to its problems")
"Amakudari" or "Descent from heaven"
As it promised in the election pledge, I sincerely expect the DPJ to resolve the Amakudari issue and break bureaucratic-dominance politics down.
But it seems to be hopeless, ref.(>"DPJ funds found to have 'amakudari' link")
In my opinion, the DPJ-led administration will become bureaucrat-depend one more than the LDP sooner or later. I means the Hatoyama Administration will become a marionette of "Kazumigaseki."
Postal privatization
New Administration -- or rather Mr. Shizuka Kamei, a political enemy of ex. prime minister Mr. Junichiro Koizumi, and was banished from the LDP in the so called "assassin election" -- intends to make the postal privatization be boneless.
Probably Mr. Kamai was motivated mainly by personal grudge against Mr. Koizumi, ref.(>"Postal services in all regions")
But we should note that postal privatization is "must" for Japan, ref.(>"The 11 postal reform rebels rejoin LDP")
Political donations from dead
Prosecutors are investigating political donation scandal of new prime minister, ref.(>"Hatoyama's donors scrutinized" & "A dirty pigeon, the DPJ leader Mr. Yukio Hatoyama")
Here, the problem is personnel picking up of new justice minister, Ms. Keiko Chiba who is a fanatic anti-Japan leftwinger.
Whole lawmakers of the DPJ aren't anti-Japan leftwingers so that propers among them surely oppose such selection by Mr. Hatoyama (and Mr. Ozawa).
Even though, whey new administration enforced this personnel selection?
Here, we should realize that a justice minister has a authority to command prosecutors, and both Mr. Hatoyama and Mr. Ozawa have political donation scandals.
It is possible that, as the result of political deal, new justice minister will exercise her authority to command the public prosecutors to stop investigating this scandal. We should pay close eye on this issue.
Appendix;
Now an opposition the LDP selected former Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki as its new president, ref.(>"LDP stakes future on new leader" & "Tanigaki slams DPJ for halting Yamba Dam")
Structual modification of the election system is "must," ref.(>"Election reform essential")
For your ref.>Hopes and tasks for the DPJ
>Pledges easy part for Hatoyama
-----------------------------------
Launch of DPJ-led new government('09. 9/18)
On Sep. 16th, DPJ party leader Yukio Hatoyama was elected as the Prime Minister by the Diet Lawmaker, and the DPJ-led government was launched, ref.(>"New government out of the blocks")
The DPJ agreed with two other much smaller parties to form coalition government, ref.(>"HEADS OF KOKUMIN SHINTO & SDP OFFERED PLUM POSTS IN CABINET. Kokumin, SDP chiefs offered plum posts"
>"第93代首相に鳩山氏を選出 衆参両院本会議"
> 衆参両院は16日午後の本会議で、民主党の鳩山由紀夫代表を第93代首相に選出した。鳩山首相は直ちに組閣し、同日中に民主、社民、国民新３党の連立政権が発足する。)
New Prime Minister Mr. Yukio Hatoyama appointed all his cabinet members to form his administration, ref.(>"HATOYAMA KICKS OFF NEW ERA, Hatoyama ushers in new era in politics"
>"鳩山新政権、全閣僚ポスト固まる 法務・千葉氏、防衛・北沢氏"
> 16日午後に発足する鳩山新政権の全閣僚ポストが固まった。以下の通り。
> ▽副首相兼国家戦略局担当＝菅直人▽総務＝原口一博▽法務＝千葉景子▽外務＝岡田克也▽財務＝藤井裕久▽文部科学＝川端達夫▽厚生労働＝長妻昭▽農林水産＝赤松広隆▽経済産業＝直嶋正行▽国土交通＝前原誠司▽環境＝小沢鋭仁▽防衛＝北沢俊美▽官房＝平野博文▽国家公安委員長＝中井洽▽行政刷新会議担当＝仙谷由人▽消費者行政・少子化・男女共同参画・食品安全担当＝福島瑞穂（社民）▽郵政・金融担当＝亀井静香（国民新）
> 中井洽氏は拉致問題担当相を兼任する。政務の官房副長官は衆院から松野頼久、参院から松井孝治、事務の官房副長官は前総務次官の滝野欣弥の３氏。)
At this time of the moment of just after a regime change, the Hatoyama administration enjoys pretty high public approval ratio, ref.(>"Cabinet's support rate 72%"
>"鳩山内閣、支持率75% 発足時で歴代第２位、日経世論調査"
> 鳩山政権の発足を受け、日本経済新聞社とテレビ東京は16〜17日に緊急世論調査を実施した。内閣支持率は 75%で、政権発足時としては、2001年４月の小泉内閣の 80%に次ぐ歴代第２位の高水準となった。不支持率は17%。民主党支持率は過去最高の 58%に達した。「脱官僚主導」などを掲げた新政権に強い期待が寄せられていることが浮き彫りになった。
> 内閣支持率は全世代で 70%を上回った。最も低いのは 20歳代の 70%で、70歳以上は 80%と最も高かった。男性の支持率は 76%で、女性は 74%。民主党支持層の 97%、連立を組む社民、国民新両党の支持層の 95%以上の圧倒的な支持を得た。発足時の支持率は小泉政権の 80%には及ばなかったが安倍政権（71%）、細川政権（70%）を上回った。
> 内閣を支持する理由（複数回答）は「政策がよい」が 33%でトップ。「民主党中心の内閣だから」（31%）、「人柄が信用できる」（25%）が続いた。)
In my analysis, root cause of the result of the latest Lower House general election isn't "DPJ's victory" but "LDP's defeat."
Namely, voters didn't expect the DPJ but only "criticized" the LDP in my opinion. So it is out of my understanding that the general public's expectation for the DPJ is so high.
It is likely that many answerers don't know about real character of the DPJ and its policy exactly in detail.
Probably, people know only about voyage image about the DPJ and its party leader. But just moment please.
Do they really believe in the DPJ's election manifesto? If what argued in the manifesto are realized, it will be wonderful and excellent.
For example, the DPJ made a rosy promise about fiscal reconstruction, ref.(>"Big changes to budget process expected under DPJ") Here, the problem is whether Japan's fiscal conditions is so easy or not to fix.
The answer is, needless to say, "No!" Gilt DPJ's election pledge will come of sooner or later, probably within short.
If in the position of an opposition, what kind of election pledges are acceptable because "they won't be executed."
In a extreme argument, the biggest raison detre of oppositions is to oppose any acts of ruling party. As the result, they aren't required to execute their political execution.
Namely, DPJ's manifesto was written on a premise of "we are opposition so that we can make any kind of rosy armchair arguments without being required to execute."
But now, the DPJ is a ruling so that they will be required to execute their manifesto -- probably it won't be possible.
Another example of armchair argument is CO2 emission reduction scheme the DPJ promised, ref.(>"Firms leery of DPJ emissions vow")
The DPJ released its plan to reduce CO2 emissions without consulting with industrial sector.
Does the DPJ think that it will be possible to achieve such bold reduction without close cooperation with industrial sector?
Now, DPJ's plan was welcomed by the world so that it has become a promise to people around the world. Taking its position as a ruling party into consideration, DPJ's act is irresponsible.
The DPJ also promise to shift from bureaucrat-led politics to politician-led one. Again, prospect of this election pledge is also doubtful.
At least, the DPJ has started to try to modify political structure, ref.(>"Bureaucrats' final meeting?" & "DPJ FACES CHALLENGE TO WREST POWER FROM BUREAUCRATS, Bureaucratic reform first hurdle")
The problem is whether the DPJ will be realize its purpose or not.
Even though they are sometimes criticized, it is bureaucrats who have knowledge and know-how in planning and management of politics.
Even though it is true that there are some problems in bureau, an administration should avoid full-fledged confrontation with them.
Ironically, the more it wants to reform bureau organizations, the more the DPJ must control and keep close cooperation with them. Namely, compromises should be sought.
Other than that, in order to manage routine political duties smoothly, it is crucially important for politicians to control and cooperate well with bureaucrats.
But many DPJ lawmakers lack practical experience in administrative management so they are easy targets to be controlled by bureaucrats.
The DPJ aims to dispatch around 100 lawmakers to ministries and agencies. But from view point of bureaucrats, it is "along came a sucker just begging to be parted from his money."
At last, it is regrettable that new foreign minister has no intention to "normalize" diplomatic relations with so called "specific Asian countries" -- namely, China and Korea, ref.(>"Okada to prioritize ties with Asian neighbors")
Anyway, as the DPJ takes power, the LDP becomes to be an opposition.
The LDP should analyze causes of the defeat and reform itself to re-deprive power from the DPJ, ref.(>"Shattered LDP must pick up the pieces")
For your ref.>Japan's harmonious drift
>Business leaders pile pressure on Hatoyama
>LDP'S LONG-HELD POLICIES START TO FALL BY THE WAYSIDE, Reversal of LDP policies begins
>SENTAKU MAGAZINE, Less 'exclusionary' DPJ to test mettle of reporters
>JAPANESE PERSPECTIVES. 'Alien' prime minister, new-look Cabinet bring change to old politics
>Time to boost Japan-EU ties
>Chance to rebuild in opposition
>Muzzling the top bureaucrats
>Challenges for the Hatoyama government
>SENTAKU MAGAZINE, Can LDP recoup the glory days?
>8/30日衆議院総選挙、自民党大敗、民主党政権獲得へ
-----------------------------------
Landslide victory by the DPJ('09. 9/12)
In the Lower House general election on Aug. 30th, DPJ got a landslide victory in that DPJ secured 308 seats in the 480-seat Lower House, ref.(>"DPJ, allies mull ruling coalition" & "End to Diet gridlock elates markets")
As the result, the DPJ-led administration is to realize and party leader Mr. Yukio Hatoyama is to be a next prime minister on Sep. 15th.
On the other hand, the LDP suffered a crushing defeat and is to be an opposition.
In order to prepare for taking power, the DPJ is progressing personnel selection to form a new cabinet, ref.(>"DPJ prepares to lead" & "Shape of DPJ rule emerging")
Good or worse, the latest Lower House general election is a landmark one to completely destroy the so called "the LDP one-party dictatorship structure," ref.(>"Japanese metamorphosis")
One problem is whether reality of the coming administration is a Hatoyama administration or Ozawa one.
Ref.(>"小沢氏への権力集中進む 党人事一任、新政権の構図鮮明に"
> 民主党の鳩山由紀夫代表が５日、小沢一郎代表代行に党執行部と国会の人事を事実上一任したことで、党をバックに小沢氏の権限が一段と強まる新政権の構図が鮮明になってきた。
> 幹事長は代表に次ぐ党内ナンバー２。政治資金の扱いや公認権を代表から委ねられ、もともと大きな力を持つが、政権交代に伴う新体制づくりで「内閣は鳩山氏、党と国会は小沢氏」と役割分担を明確にすれば小沢氏の存在感は嫌でも強まる。
> 小泉純一郎元首相と「偉大なるイエスマン」といわれた武部勤元自民党幹事長のような関係でないのは明らかだ。)
Real conditions of the coming DPJ-led government is known by foreign countries as well, ref.(>"民主党政権は「小鳩体制」 中国紙が報道"
> ７日付の中国紙「中国青年報」は、日本の民主党を中心とする新政権について「『小鳩体制』確立」との見出しの記事を掲載した。
> 鳩山由紀夫代表が小沢一郎代表代行の高い指導力を評価して幹事長に起用するものの「民主党内で二重権力構造が懸念されている」と報じた。鳩山、小沢両氏の関係を軸に民主党政権の政治基盤を注視する姿勢を示した。)
Indeed, it is likely that the coming Hatoyama Administration will be a puppet controlled by ex. DPJ leader Mr. Ozawa Ichiro as a fixer.
Mr. Ozawa is a politician who has know-how to manage administration as a ex. heavyweights of the now defunct Tanaka faction that was once the largest faction in the LDP.
On the other hand, incumbent DPJ leader Mr. Hatoyama has little experience in administrative management in a ruling party.
So there would be no way for Mr. Hatoyama but to depend on Mr. Ozawa, ref.(>"Banyan. Ichiro Ozawa: the shadow shogun")
There is one more reason why not coming prime minister Mr. Hatoyama but Mr. Ozawa is to be a real power holder -- power of the number.
In the last Lower House General Election in that the LDP got a landslide victory, large number of so called "Koizumi Children" were elected.
This time, similar phenomenon could be seen that large number of "Ozawa Children" were elected. Needless to say, they are under influence of Mr. Ozawa.
The number of newly elected fresh lawmakers who run the general election on the ticket of the DPJ is 143. It is estimated that around 100 of among them are under influence of Mr. Ozawa.
Under democratic system, generally speaking, the number is power.
If a leader backed by backed by smaller faction wants to take initiative, highly sophisticated and sometimes vulgar tactics are indispensable -- just like former prime minister Mr. Junichiro Koizumi managed.
But it seems that Mr. Hatoyama is a "mother's boy" who knows neither scene of bloodshed of struggle for power nor practical business of administrative duty.
Indeed, it was not Mr. Hatoyama but Mr. Ozawa who completely managed election tactics last month.
After all, as not only the "Ozawa Children" is the largest faction in the DPJ but also Mr. Ozawa is an demon of politics, it is only natural that Mr. Ozawa will be a shadow prime minister.
- Ozawa Children
In the 2005 Lower House General election, due to the landslide victory of the LDP, many "Koizumi Children" were elected from beginning to end. As the result, persons who lack qualification to be a lawmaker got seats in the Diet.
One typical example of that is Mr. Taizo Sugimura -- so called "Taizo-kun." It was only natural that Taizo-Kun was forced to give up to rum for the Diet this time.
Anyway, at the large number of Ozawa Children was elected, similar phenomenon can be seen this time.
For example, >"Unemployed woman ready to take up Diet seat." Is it good to send ordinary people to the Diet or not? Off course not.
It is a totally different issue that sending a person who knows and can understand feeling of ordinary people from sending an ordinary person to the Diet.
I am sorry but I have to say that this is just mob ruling. Well, we are indeed living in a degenerate age. Many Ozawa Children are to be nothing more than Ozawa-followers.
- U.S-Japan bilateral relation
Both Mr. Ozawa and Mr. Hatoyama emitted anti-U.S. remarks repeatedly, and their position until recently can be understandable.
Because it is just a tuition of an opposition to oppose an ruling administration, and flattering to the U.S. is a continuous national policy since the end of the WW2 for Japan.
But they are to be a rulers within short so that they should revise their position at least party just like the then Murayama administration did in 1993.
But recently, Mr. Hatoyama's anti-U.S. position becomes the topic in the U.S. as his essay run by the monthly opinion magazine "VOICE" was translated and run by the New York Times.
If only we read the whole essay, we can easily it is neither completely anti-globalization nor completely anti-U.S., ref.(>"In Hatoyama's 'fraternity,' people the end, not means")
On the contrary, his essay is based on relatively calm and objective view and analysis about the latest world conditions.
But it is norm for journalism to raise issues sensationally. And it is also norm for a hegemony that can't be tolerable for any kind of trivial criticism against it.
Both Mr. Hatoyama and Mr. Ozawa must realize that some kind of remarks that are tolerable from standpoint of an opposition can't be tolerable after taking a ruling position.
Indeed, that was the reason why then prime minister Tomiichi Murayama Administration from the now defunct the SDPJ changed his position after assumption.
The DPJ seeks to form a coalition government with Social Democratic Party and People's New Party, ref.(>"DPJ COALITION NOT WITHOUT RIFTS, Rifts surface as DPJ seeks to woo allies")
Here, the SDP is a direct successor party of the SDPJ. In addition, the DPJ includes large number of former SDPJ lawmakers.
If the DPJ will fail to take more realistic and pragmatic position in diplomacy, deterioration in U.S.-Japan bilateral relation will be unavoidable.
Needless to say, such future must be evaded, ref.(>"DPJ & Japan-U.S. relations")
Here, some analyze that personnel selection of California lawyer Mr. John Roos as U.S. ambassador to Japan by the Barack Administration represents its pro-China and Japan-passing stance, ref.(>"U.S. ambassador serves a role most vital")
U.S. is raising criticism against Mr. Hatoyama's intention to halt fuel-supplying mission in the Indian Ocean in relation to U.S. anti-terror mission.
It isn't practical damage against their military operation in Afghanistan but symbolic meaning that the U.S. dislike -- allies are withdrawing one after another.
It is surely humiliating to be treated as a puppet by the U.S. But it will take time for Japan to become a normal country.
Mr. Hatoyama's solid attitude won't serve in Japan's national interests, ref.(>"Hatoyama firm: MSDF tour to end")
In this meaning, what the DPJ is required is "changing sides" to cooperate with the U.S. well, ref.(>"Real 'fraternity' with U.S.")
- Coalision with the SDP
As I mentioned above, it is likely that former SDPJ lawmakers in both the DPJ and small partner the SDP will have strong influence in the coming DPJ-led administration.
As it got a overwhelming victory, the DPJ doesn't need to form a coalition government with other smaller parties
But Mr. Hatoyama intends to do so that represents his lack of political sense, ref.(>"DPJ, two allies agree to form coalition" & "DPJ seeks coalition balancing act")
Indeed, former SDPJ lawmakers are anti-Japan national traitors who want to make the Japanese Empire as an absolute evil eternally, and wants to make irrational apologies to neighboring Asian countries as mush as they want.
Needless to say, then want to pay redress to North Korea as much as being required, ref.(>"NORTH TIES DEPEND ON REDRESS. Ties hinge on redress for 1910-45, North says")
Ha, ha, ha, eligible voters in Japan made a stupid decision. But is is democracy, or rather mobocracy.
The Kim Dynasty also expects traitors, ref.(>"NORTH OVERTURE, Pyongyang hopeful of Hatoyama") North Korea only want to withdraw money from Japan via pretending to be a victim of the Japanese Empire.
They traitors oppose any kind of SDF's activities even though those are in Japan's national interests, ref.(>"Fallback to refueling mission a must: Nye" & "MSDF tour serves Japan, DPJ told")
Ha, ha, ha, go to hell, anti-Japan left winger traitors!!
- Dependency on bureaucrats
One of the major election pledges of the DPJ is to "break bureaucrats-led politics down." Mr. Hatoyama want to dispatch around 100 lawmakers to ministries and government offices.
But it is useless, or rather backfiring, to send amateurs who aren't familiar with practical political management.
They will become marionettes of bureaucrats within short, ref.(>"An election manifesto issued by the DPJ")
How about Mr. Ozawa who is to be a shadow prime minister? As a former LDP heavyweight, he knows well about how to get along with bureaucrats.
But it means that there is no difference between coming DPJ-led administration and hitherto LDP-led one.
Rather, there are many armatures in the DPJ, Mr. Ozawa will be forced to depend on officials.
In my opinion, the DPJ-led administration will raise its dependency on bureaucrats, ref.(>"BUREAUCRATS SEE THE HANDWRITING ON THE WALL, Bureaucrats jockey to face new management")
- Fiscal reconstruction
Fiscal reconstruction via abolishment of wasteful spending is one of the major election pledges of the DPJ, ref.(>"DPJ may draw up multiyear budget")
But as many criticizes, the DPJ's manifesto is nothing more than an armchair argument. Needless to say, Japan's fiscal conditions isn't so easy.
Here, I don't feel necessity to analyze and explain about that.
All what we should do is only to keep on watching DPJ's execution and failure as the result, ref.(>"DPJ battles the budget")
- Realization of a low-carbon society
Mr. Hatoyama released much more bold and drastic intention to reduce CO2 emission than LDP's one, ref.(>"Impetus for a low-carbon world")
At the same time, the DPJ pledged to reduce or abolish highway charges. If traffic density will rise, how to reduce CO2 emission. And how to secure fund sources to reduce or abolish highway toll?
Let's look at DPJ's ability. The DPJ must challenge and achieve if it will be able to do so.
Anyway, many journalism criticize DPJ's plan to reduce or abolish highway toll as "it will reduce charge-revenue without securing another fund sources," and "it will raise traffic density and damage environment hard."
But as far as I remember, they criticized expensive highway toll until recently, saying "Highways in Germany and the U.S are free of charge. If Japan follows them, domestic ones will be utilized highly and that would boost economic growth."
Ha, ha, ha, journalism is it!!!
- Crushing defeat of Komeito
Not only the LDP but also its smaller coalition partner New Komeito party suffered a crushing defeat, ref.(>"Komeito must return to its roots")
In short, it is superb and excellent. Even though a faith is an issue of each and every person, separation of religious and politics is an another one.
Following the result of the general election, the LDP should resolve its relation with a religious party.
For your ref.>The decline of policymaking
>Decay of Japanese politics
>Japan has plenty of work to do in transforming how it governs
>Keidanren chief seeks common ground with DPJ
>Coalition on delicate foundations
>Drama won't cure the doldrums
>Increasing prospects for jobless recovery will test DPJ policies
>THE VIEW FROM NEW YORK, Hatoyama just calling it as it is
>Japan's election, The vote that changed Japan
0
Needless to say, an "administrative change" itself is a neither purpose nor goal for the DPJ and new Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama. It is only a "measure" and "start."
Now, what does matter is what the DPJ and Mr. Hatoyama will do from now on. Let's analysis policy measures of the DPJ at a first glance.
Generally speaking, I don't support the new DPJ-led administration because the real figure of the DPJ is the now defunct SDPJ -- anti-Japan left wingers.
It is very likely that the new administration will launch anti-Japan measures based on masochism histrical view one after another,
As they are traitors that they want to apology and grovel to so called specific Asian countries -- China and Koreas -- as much as possible. So when it comes to historical issue, "hopeless".
But even though I'm not a supporter of the DPJ, I must accept a fact that "it is the DPJ that now rules Japan."
Here, it is unfair attitude to criticize the DPJ without calm and subjective observation and analysis. At first, we should make efforts to analyze and evaluate both favorable and bad elements in DPJ's measures.
What kind of hope and expectation we could (couldn't) have to the new Hatoyama administration?
U.S.-Japan bilateral relation
Due to his essay run by a monthly opinion magazine "VOICE," new Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, getting worse of U.S-Japan relation was concerned.
But Mr. Hatoyama made his diplomatic debut without any major troubles, ref.(>"Dancing around delicate issues")
But there is no doubt that Washington is offendeded by that essay. So friendly atmosphere between Mr. Obama and Mr. Hatoyama was nothing more than Diplomatic language.
Japan enjoyed favorable position -- a puppet of the U.S. -- since the end of the WW2.
Although Japan experienced humiliations, Japan has enjoyed economic prosperity under an umbrella of the pax-Americana.
As long as U.S. hegemony is unshakable, Japan should stay under current position. But reality is that U.S. hegemony is shaking due to military failures in Iraq and Afghanistan and subprime fiasco.
Both Party Leader and its Secretary General -- Mr. Hatoyama and Mr. Ozawa -- express their intention to make U.S-Japan bilateral relation to be "equal partnership".
It is "forgetting Japan's place" to seek equal partnership with the U.S. But now is just an opportunity to change from a "boss-follower relation" to "brotherhood one."
Here, the problem is that the DPJ really wants Japan to (truly) independent from the U.S?
I doubt that. They expressed that from a standpoint of an opposition. Namely, their true intention was to "oppose any acts by the ruling LDP" without responsibility.
Now they are a ruling so that they should take responsibility about their acts. Namely, they should realize Japan's place.
As we nationals are too accustomed to be a puppet of the U.S., we need rehabilitation at first that will take considerable time.
It is too early to seek complete independence from the U.S. For example, many Japanese are drifting in a daydream of "peace-at-any-price mind-set."
They don't recognize the fact that "the peace for more than 6-decade is owned to not Article 9th of the Constitution but U.S-Japan Security Pact and SDF."
As Japan has yet been ready to (truly) independent that the DPJ should maintain good relation with the U.S. Needless to say refueling mission in the Indian Ocean is "must."
Climate Change
Mr. Hatoyama released a bold plan to reduce CO2 emission and be praised by world leaders, ref.(>"Japan's new climate initiative raises hopes")
But when it comes to the international community and diplomacy, we shouldn't take foreign people's praise straightly. It is not "diplomacy" to make dialogue sincerely and honestly.
We should always be conscious that "Why foreign people praise us? Are there any king of hidden meanings?"
To begin with, the Kyoto Protocol was recognized in Japan as a "unfair treaty" because it sets reference year to 1990.
In 1990, Japan's industry finished energy conservative investment nearly completely. So it is tough for Japan to further reduce energy consumption and CO2 emission from 1990 level.
In Europe, the Berlin Wall collapsed in 1990 that divided Europe to two regions. In the Kyoto Protocol negotiation, the EU insisted on the idea that "Europe is one entity."
In ex. communism eastern Europe, industrial facilities and equipments are so obsolete, it is relatively easy for the EU to reduce energy consumption and CO2 emission via introducing new technology and state of the art facilities into eastern Europe.
In addition, the U.S., China and India aren't restricted by the Kyoto Protocol.
In short, Japan was force to take unfairly heavy burden due to failure of diplomatic tactics.
This time, Mr. Hatoyama expressed a plan to reduce CO2 emission by 25% from 1990 levels by 2020. In other words, Mr. Hatoyama set a upper limit of the size of Japan's industrial activities.
So it is only natural that other representatives were delighted to hear Japan's industrial self suicide.
This is the real meaning of praises Mr. Hatoyama got in NY. So we Japanese must be not in high spirits but recognize the seriousness well.
Of course, we can't ignore climate change issue, ref.(>"Why joint initiatives on climate will likely fail" & "Losing control of the heat")
And possibility of dramatic technological break through and change of social system can't be denied as the result of imposition of strict regulation.
But even so, Mr. Hatoyama lacked sense of the "national interests." For domestic industrial sector, Mr. Hatoyama's performance and showman-hip are nothing more than an "own goal."
Fiscal reconstruction and economic stimulation
It is worth to be sympathized that current economic crisis has nothing to do with the DPJ. But even so, the DPJ made election pledge to improve economic and employment conditions dramatically.
Once it promised, it is the DPJ's responsibility to realize that. Indeed, the DPJ is considering measures, ref.(>"No letup on stimulus policies")
There are both good information and bad one about economy, ref.(>"Record price tumble sparks deflation fears" & "CORPORATE SENTIMENT UP, Corporate sentiment on recovery track")
And it is possible to tackle with structural reforms in a crisis, ref.(>"Let's turn crisis into chance")
But as the DPJ forms an alliance with left-winger parties, it can't ignore public welfare measures that costs much, ref.(>"Health care for older seniors")
It is impossible to realize both fiscal reconstruction and improvement of social welfare system. It is a matter of an "alternative."
In addition, the DPJ promised in its election manifesto to offer direct subsidiaries to farmers, ref.(>"RICE FARMING. Rice -- a staple of unstable future, funds?")
It is possible only paradise or utopia to realize both fiscal reconstruction and throwing a lot of money to secure voters' support.
Generally speaking, the DPJ's plans are too rosy that they aren't plausible to meet.
It seems that the DPJ doesn't realize toughness in realization of election pledges because it was an opposition too long. But it is too early to conclude.
It is unwritten rule that we should refrain severe criticism just after launch of a new administration at least for honeymoon 100 days. Let's observe that for the time being.
Aging and shrinking population
Japan's population is aging and shrinking ,ref.(>"Grayer population" & "One in four women in Japan is at least 65 years old, government estimates")
So when it comes to current sluggish economy, whole of that can't be explained by economic cyclic factor or "Subprime Tsunami" from abroad.
It is very likely that current economic slowing down is due to Japan's demographic factor at least partly.
Namely, what Japan is now facing up is not economic deterioration but economic -- or national -- decline.
Indeed, movement of land prices supports my logic, ref.(>"Nationwide land prices crumble at fastest pace in five years") This can't be explained wholly by burst of mini-bubble in urban areas.
As the number of people who utilize lands and real estates declines, it is only natural that so do prices of them based on "DCF" or "Discounted Cash Flow Method."
The DPJ made election pledges to offer \26,000 of child-subsidiary to realize a society to promote giving birth.
In addition, the DPJ promised to make public compulsory education free of charge to reduce cost of child-caring. Good! I completely support these measures.
The problem is, at first, whether the DPJ will be able to secure necessary fund sources to conduct these measures. Namely, "you can't get a stocking off a bare foot."
Second, will eligible voters support these measures? Although the LDP also realized that such kind of measures are "must," it couldn't implemented that because that weren't effective to secure vote.
In democratic system, policy measure are prone to be short-sighted because populism is effective to secure support from eligible voters.
On the other hand, national foresighted plans that the general public aren't interested are likely to be neglected.
In this meaning, the DPJ-led new administration is in a favorable position to tackle longer term measures of this kind.
The problem is whether "tackling by the DPJ will be sustainable or not."
I'm afraid that if it finds out that it is meaningless to secure support from general public, the DPJ would lose is enthusiasm to tackle with demographic issue. And it can't be helped but because the DPJ is now not an opposition but ruling party.
Red card agasint wasteful public works
The Hatoyama administration has been in full gear since it took power last month in trying to fulfill one of its key election pledges -- halting wasteful public projects.
The Yamba Dam is a symbol of that, ref.(>"To build a dam, or not" & "MAEHARA VISITS, Maehara visits Yamba Dam site" & "Dam cancellation leaves local residents high and dry")
Now, it seems to me that the Yamba Dam is a neither industrial and economic issue nor disaster prevention and water-utilization one.
It has already become a issue of "face" or "mien tzu." As the' Yamba Dam is one of the center pieces of DPJ's election pledges so that it doesn't close if it goes down.
Anyway, good or worse, there is no doubt that there are many wasteful public projects across the country. And the DPJ is relatively easy to halt them because it has less vested interests than the LDP.
I expect the DPJ to avoid "anticlimax" in modifying a "construction of public works country."
Free of charge highway driving
Just after the victory in the general election, the DPJ toned down its an election pledge to realize free of charge utilization of highway.
Ha, ha, ha, the DPJ conducted violation of an election pledge even before a launch of the administration.
There are both pros and cons in free of charge utilization in tactical level. But we should ignore such kind of trivial issues because the 21th century isn't a period of vehicles.
Indeed, the 20th century was surely an era of automobile in both industrial meaning and social one.
But the 21th century is to be a time of railways. So the new administration should prioritize "modal shift" as a national foresighted plan, ref.(>'"Modal Shift" in transportation system')
To begin with, how the DPJ will reduce CO2 emission by 25% while promoting auto utilization? It's an act of madness in my opinion.
U.S.-Japan secret agreement
It is one of the center pieces of the DPJ's election pledges to reveal all facts about U.S.-Japan secret agreements in relation to returning-Okinawa and nuclear weapons in Japan's territory.
Indeed, new foreign minister Mr. Katusya Okuda ordered to investigate them so that we should wait and see for the time being, ref.(>"Probe launched into four secret pacts with U.S." & "U.S.-Japan secret agreement; nuclear weapons in Japan")
Turning around of management of JAL
When it comes to deterioration of operation and finance-conditions of JAL, Japan's national flagship air carrier, I have not so detailed knowledge.
At least, it seems that new transport minister Mr. Seiji Maehara is considering various ways, ref.(>"JAL to shelve foreign capital tieup talks, focus on rehab" & "JAL must face up to its problems")
"Amakudari" or "Descent from heaven"
As it promised in the election pledge, I sincerely expect the DPJ to resolve the Amakudari issue and break bureaucratic-dominance politics down.
But it seems to be hopeless, ref.(>"DPJ funds found to have 'amakudari' link")
In my opinion, the DPJ-led administration will become bureaucrat-depend one more than the LDP sooner or later. I means the Hatoyama Administration will become a marionette of "Kazumigaseki."
Postal privatization
New Administration -- or rather Mr. Shizuka Kamei, a political enemy of ex. prime minister Mr. Junichiro Koizumi, and was banished from the LDP in the so called "assassin election" -- intends to make the postal privatization be boneless.
Probably Mr. Kamai was motivated mainly by personal grudge against Mr. Koizumi, ref.(>"Postal services in all regions")
But we should note that postal privatization is "must" for Japan, ref.(>"The 11 postal reform rebels rejoin LDP")
Political donations from dead
Prosecutors are investigating political donation scandal of new prime minister, ref.(>"Hatoyama's donors scrutinized" & "A dirty pigeon, the DPJ leader Mr. Yukio Hatoyama")
Here, the problem is personnel picking up of new justice minister, Ms. Keiko Chiba who is a fanatic anti-Japan leftwinger.
Whole lawmakers of the DPJ aren't anti-Japan leftwingers so that propers among them surely oppose such selection by Mr. Hatoyama (and Mr. Ozawa).
Even though, whey new administration enforced this personnel selection?
Here, we should realize that a justice minister has a authority to command prosecutors, and both Mr. Hatoyama and Mr. Ozawa have political donation scandals.
It is possible that, as the result of political deal, new justice minister will exercise her authority to command the public prosecutors to stop investigating this scandal. We should pay close eye on this issue.
Appendix;
Now an opposition the LDP selected former Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki as its new president, ref.(>"LDP stakes future on new leader" & "Tanigaki slams DPJ for halting Yamba Dam")
Structual modification of the election system is "must," ref.(>"Election reform essential")
For your ref.>Hopes and tasks for the DPJ
>Pledges easy part for Hatoyama
-----------------------------------
Launch of DPJ-led new government('09. 9/18)
On Sep. 16th, DPJ party leader Yukio Hatoyama was elected as the Prime Minister by the Diet Lawmaker, and the DPJ-led government was launched, ref.(>"New government out of the blocks")
The DPJ agreed with two other much smaller parties to form coalition government, ref.(>"HEADS OF KOKUMIN SHINTO & SDP OFFERED PLUM POSTS IN CABINET. Kokumin, SDP chiefs offered plum posts"
>"第93代首相に鳩山氏を選出 衆参両院本会議"
> 衆参両院は16日午後の本会議で、民主党の鳩山由紀夫代表を第93代首相に選出した。鳩山首相は直ちに組閣し、同日中に民主、社民、国民新３党の連立政権が発足する。)
New Prime Minister Mr. Yukio Hatoyama appointed all his cabinet members to form his administration, ref.(>"HATOYAMA KICKS OFF NEW ERA, Hatoyama ushers in new era in politics"
>"鳩山新政権、全閣僚ポスト固まる 法務・千葉氏、防衛・北沢氏"
> 16日午後に発足する鳩山新政権の全閣僚ポストが固まった。以下の通り。
> ▽副首相兼国家戦略局担当＝菅直人▽総務＝原口一博▽法務＝千葉景子▽外務＝岡田克也▽財務＝藤井裕久▽文部科学＝川端達夫▽厚生労働＝長妻昭▽農林水産＝赤松広隆▽経済産業＝直嶋正行▽国土交通＝前原誠司▽環境＝小沢鋭仁▽防衛＝北沢俊美▽官房＝平野博文▽国家公安委員長＝中井洽▽行政刷新会議担当＝仙谷由人▽消費者行政・少子化・男女共同参画・食品安全担当＝福島瑞穂（社民）▽郵政・金融担当＝亀井静香（国民新）
> 中井洽氏は拉致問題担当相を兼任する。政務の官房副長官は衆院から松野頼久、参院から松井孝治、事務の官房副長官は前総務次官の滝野欣弥の３氏。)
At this time of the moment of just after a regime change, the Hatoyama administration enjoys pretty high public approval ratio, ref.(>"Cabinet's support rate 72%"
>"鳩山内閣、支持率75% 発足時で歴代第２位、日経世論調査"
> 鳩山政権の発足を受け、日本経済新聞社とテレビ東京は16〜17日に緊急世論調査を実施した。内閣支持率は 75%で、政権発足時としては、2001年４月の小泉内閣の 80%に次ぐ歴代第２位の高水準となった。不支持率は17%。民主党支持率は過去最高の 58%に達した。「脱官僚主導」などを掲げた新政権に強い期待が寄せられていることが浮き彫りになった。
> 内閣支持率は全世代で 70%を上回った。最も低いのは 20歳代の 70%で、70歳以上は 80%と最も高かった。男性の支持率は 76%で、女性は 74%。民主党支持層の 97%、連立を組む社民、国民新両党の支持層の 95%以上の圧倒的な支持を得た。発足時の支持率は小泉政権の 80%には及ばなかったが安倍政権（71%）、細川政権（70%）を上回った。
> 内閣を支持する理由（複数回答）は「政策がよい」が 33%でトップ。「民主党中心の内閣だから」（31%）、「人柄が信用できる」（25%）が続いた。)
In my analysis, root cause of the result of the latest Lower House general election isn't "DPJ's victory" but "LDP's defeat."
Namely, voters didn't expect the DPJ but only "criticized" the LDP in my opinion. So it is out of my understanding that the general public's expectation for the DPJ is so high.
It is likely that many answerers don't know about real character of the DPJ and its policy exactly in detail.
Probably, people know only about voyage image about the DPJ and its party leader. But just moment please.
Do they really believe in the DPJ's election manifesto? If what argued in the manifesto are realized, it will be wonderful and excellent.
For example, the DPJ made a rosy promise about fiscal reconstruction, ref.(>"Big changes to budget process expected under DPJ") Here, the problem is whether Japan's fiscal conditions is so easy or not to fix.
The answer is, needless to say, "No!" Gilt DPJ's election pledge will come of sooner or later, probably within short.
If in the position of an opposition, what kind of election pledges are acceptable because "they won't be executed."
In a extreme argument, the biggest raison detre of oppositions is to oppose any acts of ruling party. As the result, they aren't required to execute their political execution.
Namely, DPJ's manifesto was written on a premise of "we are opposition so that we can make any kind of rosy armchair arguments without being required to execute."
But now, the DPJ is a ruling so that they will be required to execute their manifesto -- probably it won't be possible.
Another example of armchair argument is CO2 emission reduction scheme the DPJ promised, ref.(>"Firms leery of DPJ emissions vow")
The DPJ released its plan to reduce CO2 emissions without consulting with industrial sector.
Does the DPJ think that it will be possible to achieve such bold reduction without close cooperation with industrial sector?
Now, DPJ's plan was welcomed by the world so that it has become a promise to people around the world. Taking its position as a ruling party into consideration, DPJ's act is irresponsible.
The DPJ also promise to shift from bureaucrat-led politics to politician-led one. Again, prospect of this election pledge is also doubtful.
At least, the DPJ has started to try to modify political structure, ref.(>"Bureaucrats' final meeting?" & "DPJ FACES CHALLENGE TO WREST POWER FROM BUREAUCRATS, Bureaucratic reform first hurdle")
The problem is whether the DPJ will be realize its purpose or not.
Even though they are sometimes criticized, it is bureaucrats who have knowledge and know-how in planning and management of politics.
Even though it is true that there are some problems in bureau, an administration should avoid full-fledged confrontation with them.
Ironically, the more it wants to reform bureau organizations, the more the DPJ must control and keep close cooperation with them. Namely, compromises should be sought.
Other than that, in order to manage routine political duties smoothly, it is crucially important for politicians to control and cooperate well with bureaucrats.
But many DPJ lawmakers lack practical experience in administrative management so they are easy targets to be controlled by bureaucrats.
The DPJ aims to dispatch around 100 lawmakers to ministries and agencies. But from view point of bureaucrats, it is "along came a sucker just begging to be parted from his money."
At last, it is regrettable that new foreign minister has no intention to "normalize" diplomatic relations with so called "specific Asian countries" -- namely, China and Korea, ref.(>"Okada to prioritize ties with Asian neighbors")
Anyway, as the DPJ takes power, the LDP becomes to be an opposition.
The LDP should analyze causes of the defeat and reform itself to re-deprive power from the DPJ, ref.(>"Shattered LDP must pick up the pieces")
For your ref.>Japan's harmonious drift
>Business leaders pile pressure on Hatoyama
>LDP'S LONG-HELD POLICIES START TO FALL BY THE WAYSIDE, Reversal of LDP policies begins
>SENTAKU MAGAZINE, Less 'exclusionary' DPJ to test mettle of reporters
>JAPANESE PERSPECTIVES. 'Alien' prime minister, new-look Cabinet bring change to old politics
>Time to boost Japan-EU ties
>Chance to rebuild in opposition
>Muzzling the top bureaucrats
>Challenges for the Hatoyama government
>SENTAKU MAGAZINE, Can LDP recoup the glory days?
>8/30日衆議院総選挙、自民党大敗、民主党政権獲得へ
-----------------------------------
Landslide victory by the DPJ('09. 9/12)
In the Lower House general election on Aug. 30th, DPJ got a landslide victory in that DPJ secured 308 seats in the 480-seat Lower House, ref.(>"DPJ, allies mull ruling coalition" & "End to Diet gridlock elates markets")
As the result, the DPJ-led administration is to realize and party leader Mr. Yukio Hatoyama is to be a next prime minister on Sep. 15th.
On the other hand, the LDP suffered a crushing defeat and is to be an opposition.
In order to prepare for taking power, the DPJ is progressing personnel selection to form a new cabinet, ref.(>"DPJ prepares to lead" & "Shape of DPJ rule emerging")
Good or worse, the latest Lower House general election is a landmark one to completely destroy the so called "the LDP one-party dictatorship structure," ref.(>"Japanese metamorphosis")
One problem is whether reality of the coming administration is a Hatoyama administration or Ozawa one.
Ref.(>"小沢氏への権力集中進む 党人事一任、新政権の構図鮮明に"
> 民主党の鳩山由紀夫代表が５日、小沢一郎代表代行に党執行部と国会の人事を事実上一任したことで、党をバックに小沢氏の権限が一段と強まる新政権の構図が鮮明になってきた。
> 幹事長は代表に次ぐ党内ナンバー２。政治資金の扱いや公認権を代表から委ねられ、もともと大きな力を持つが、政権交代に伴う新体制づくりで「内閣は鳩山氏、党と国会は小沢氏」と役割分担を明確にすれば小沢氏の存在感は嫌でも強まる。
> 小泉純一郎元首相と「偉大なるイエスマン」といわれた武部勤元自民党幹事長のような関係でないのは明らかだ。)
Real conditions of the coming DPJ-led government is known by foreign countries as well, ref.(>"民主党政権は「小鳩体制」 中国紙が報道"
> ７日付の中国紙「中国青年報」は、日本の民主党を中心とする新政権について「『小鳩体制』確立」との見出しの記事を掲載した。
> 鳩山由紀夫代表が小沢一郎代表代行の高い指導力を評価して幹事長に起用するものの「民主党内で二重権力構造が懸念されている」と報じた。鳩山、小沢両氏の関係を軸に民主党政権の政治基盤を注視する姿勢を示した。)
Indeed, it is likely that the coming Hatoyama Administration will be a puppet controlled by ex. DPJ leader Mr. Ozawa Ichiro as a fixer.
Mr. Ozawa is a politician who has know-how to manage administration as a ex. heavyweights of the now defunct Tanaka faction that was once the largest faction in the LDP.
On the other hand, incumbent DPJ leader Mr. Hatoyama has little experience in administrative management in a ruling party.
So there would be no way for Mr. Hatoyama but to depend on Mr. Ozawa, ref.(>"Banyan. Ichiro Ozawa: the shadow shogun")
There is one more reason why not coming prime minister Mr. Hatoyama but Mr. Ozawa is to be a real power holder -- power of the number.
In the last Lower House General Election in that the LDP got a landslide victory, large number of so called "Koizumi Children" were elected.
This time, similar phenomenon could be seen that large number of "Ozawa Children" were elected. Needless to say, they are under influence of Mr. Ozawa.
The number of newly elected fresh lawmakers who run the general election on the ticket of the DPJ is 143. It is estimated that around 100 of among them are under influence of Mr. Ozawa.
Under democratic system, generally speaking, the number is power.
If a leader backed by backed by smaller faction wants to take initiative, highly sophisticated and sometimes vulgar tactics are indispensable -- just like former prime minister Mr. Junichiro Koizumi managed.
But it seems that Mr. Hatoyama is a "mother's boy" who knows neither scene of bloodshed of struggle for power nor practical business of administrative duty.
Indeed, it was not Mr. Hatoyama but Mr. Ozawa who completely managed election tactics last month.
After all, as not only the "Ozawa Children" is the largest faction in the DPJ but also Mr. Ozawa is an demon of politics, it is only natural that Mr. Ozawa will be a shadow prime minister.
- Ozawa Children
In the 2005 Lower House General election, due to the landslide victory of the LDP, many "Koizumi Children" were elected from beginning to end. As the result, persons who lack qualification to be a lawmaker got seats in the Diet.
One typical example of that is Mr. Taizo Sugimura -- so called "Taizo-kun." It was only natural that Taizo-Kun was forced to give up to rum for the Diet this time.
Anyway, at the large number of Ozawa Children was elected, similar phenomenon can be seen this time.
For example, >"Unemployed woman ready to take up Diet seat." Is it good to send ordinary people to the Diet or not? Off course not.
It is a totally different issue that sending a person who knows and can understand feeling of ordinary people from sending an ordinary person to the Diet.
I am sorry but I have to say that this is just mob ruling. Well, we are indeed living in a degenerate age. Many Ozawa Children are to be nothing more than Ozawa-followers.
- U.S-Japan bilateral relation
Both Mr. Ozawa and Mr. Hatoyama emitted anti-U.S. remarks repeatedly, and their position until recently can be understandable.
Because it is just a tuition of an opposition to oppose an ruling administration, and flattering to the U.S. is a continuous national policy since the end of the WW2 for Japan.
But they are to be a rulers within short so that they should revise their position at least party just like the then Murayama administration did in 1993.
But recently, Mr. Hatoyama's anti-U.S. position becomes the topic in the U.S. as his essay run by the monthly opinion magazine "VOICE" was translated and run by the New York Times.
If only we read the whole essay, we can easily it is neither completely anti-globalization nor completely anti-U.S., ref.(>"In Hatoyama's 'fraternity,' people the end, not means")
On the contrary, his essay is based on relatively calm and objective view and analysis about the latest world conditions.
But it is norm for journalism to raise issues sensationally. And it is also norm for a hegemony that can't be tolerable for any kind of trivial criticism against it.
Both Mr. Hatoyama and Mr. Ozawa must realize that some kind of remarks that are tolerable from standpoint of an opposition can't be tolerable after taking a ruling position.
Indeed, that was the reason why then prime minister Tomiichi Murayama Administration from the now defunct the SDPJ changed his position after assumption.
The DPJ seeks to form a coalition government with Social Democratic Party and People's New Party, ref.(>"DPJ COALITION NOT WITHOUT RIFTS, Rifts surface as DPJ seeks to woo allies")
Here, the SDP is a direct successor party of the SDPJ. In addition, the DPJ includes large number of former SDPJ lawmakers.
If the DPJ will fail to take more realistic and pragmatic position in diplomacy, deterioration in U.S.-Japan bilateral relation will be unavoidable.
Needless to say, such future must be evaded, ref.(>"DPJ & Japan-U.S. relations")
Here, some analyze that personnel selection of California lawyer Mr. John Roos as U.S. ambassador to Japan by the Barack Administration represents its pro-China and Japan-passing stance, ref.(>"U.S. ambassador serves a role most vital")
U.S. is raising criticism against Mr. Hatoyama's intention to halt fuel-supplying mission in the Indian Ocean in relation to U.S. anti-terror mission.
It isn't practical damage against their military operation in Afghanistan but symbolic meaning that the U.S. dislike -- allies are withdrawing one after another.
It is surely humiliating to be treated as a puppet by the U.S. But it will take time for Japan to become a normal country.
Mr. Hatoyama's solid attitude won't serve in Japan's national interests, ref.(>"Hatoyama firm: MSDF tour to end")
In this meaning, what the DPJ is required is "changing sides" to cooperate with the U.S. well, ref.(>"Real 'fraternity' with U.S.")
- Coalision with the SDP
As I mentioned above, it is likely that former SDPJ lawmakers in both the DPJ and small partner the SDP will have strong influence in the coming DPJ-led administration.
As it got a overwhelming victory, the DPJ doesn't need to form a coalition government with other smaller parties
But Mr. Hatoyama intends to do so that represents his lack of political sense, ref.(>"DPJ, two allies agree to form coalition" & "DPJ seeks coalition balancing act")
Indeed, former SDPJ lawmakers are anti-Japan national traitors who want to make the Japanese Empire as an absolute evil eternally, and wants to make irrational apologies to neighboring Asian countries as mush as they want.
Needless to say, then want to pay redress to North Korea as much as being required, ref.(>"NORTH TIES DEPEND ON REDRESS. Ties hinge on redress for 1910-45, North says")
Ha, ha, ha, eligible voters in Japan made a stupid decision. But is is democracy, or rather mobocracy.
The Kim Dynasty also expects traitors, ref.(>"NORTH OVERTURE, Pyongyang hopeful of Hatoyama") North Korea only want to withdraw money from Japan via pretending to be a victim of the Japanese Empire.
They traitors oppose any kind of SDF's activities even though those are in Japan's national interests, ref.(>"Fallback to refueling mission a must: Nye" & "MSDF tour serves Japan, DPJ told")
Ha, ha, ha, go to hell, anti-Japan left winger traitors!!
- Dependency on bureaucrats
One of the major election pledges of the DPJ is to "break bureaucrats-led politics down." Mr. Hatoyama want to dispatch around 100 lawmakers to ministries and government offices.
But it is useless, or rather backfiring, to send amateurs who aren't familiar with practical political management.
They will become marionettes of bureaucrats within short, ref.(>"An election manifesto issued by the DPJ")
How about Mr. Ozawa who is to be a shadow prime minister? As a former LDP heavyweight, he knows well about how to get along with bureaucrats.
But it means that there is no difference between coming DPJ-led administration and hitherto LDP-led one.
Rather, there are many armatures in the DPJ, Mr. Ozawa will be forced to depend on officials.
In my opinion, the DPJ-led administration will raise its dependency on bureaucrats, ref.(>"BUREAUCRATS SEE THE HANDWRITING ON THE WALL, Bureaucrats jockey to face new management")
- Fiscal reconstruction
Fiscal reconstruction via abolishment of wasteful spending is one of the major election pledges of the DPJ, ref.(>"DPJ may draw up multiyear budget")
But as many criticizes, the DPJ's manifesto is nothing more than an armchair argument. Needless to say, Japan's fiscal conditions isn't so easy.
Here, I don't feel necessity to analyze and explain about that.
All what we should do is only to keep on watching DPJ's execution and failure as the result, ref.(>"DPJ battles the budget")
- Realization of a low-carbon society
Mr. Hatoyama released much more bold and drastic intention to reduce CO2 emission than LDP's one, ref.(>"Impetus for a low-carbon world")
At the same time, the DPJ pledged to reduce or abolish highway charges. If traffic density will rise, how to reduce CO2 emission. And how to secure fund sources to reduce or abolish highway toll?
Let's look at DPJ's ability. The DPJ must challenge and achieve if it will be able to do so.
Anyway, many journalism criticize DPJ's plan to reduce or abolish highway toll as "it will reduce charge-revenue without securing another fund sources," and "it will raise traffic density and damage environment hard."
But as far as I remember, they criticized expensive highway toll until recently, saying "Highways in Germany and the U.S are free of charge. If Japan follows them, domestic ones will be utilized highly and that would boost economic growth."
Ha, ha, ha, journalism is it!!!
- Crushing defeat of Komeito
Not only the LDP but also its smaller coalition partner New Komeito party suffered a crushing defeat, ref.(>"Komeito must return to its roots")
In short, it is superb and excellent. Even though a faith is an issue of each and every person, separation of religious and politics is an another one.
Following the result of the general election, the LDP should resolve its relation with a religious party.
For your ref.>The decline of policymaking
>Decay of Japanese politics
>Japan has plenty of work to do in transforming how it governs
>Keidanren chief seeks common ground with DPJ
>Coalition on delicate foundations
>Drama won't cure the doldrums
>Increasing prospects for jobless recovery will test DPJ policies
>THE VIEW FROM NEW YORK, Hatoyama just calling it as it is
>Japan's election, The vote that changed Japan
0
