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2009/10/30 1：06
The Hatoyama Administration's economic and fiscal policy
One and a half month has passed since emergence of the DPJ-led Hatoyama Administration, and the new government is showing its originalities in some policy measures, ref.(>"Mr. Hatoyama states his politics")
New administration's measures that differs from the ex. LDP-led one will improve Japan's economy and people's daily lives as it pledged in its election manifesto?
In my opinion, some of them are good and favorable for Japan while others are bad and even harmful.
Anyway, Japan's economic conditions is still so gloomy that the financial authority is forced to continue its ultra loose monetary policy, ref.(>"BOJ keeps key interest rate at 0.1%")
But it isn't the Hatoyama Administration's responsibility because it only "succeeded" that from the LDP-led government, ref.(>"Government inherits view on economy")
But even so, if new administration makes critical economic misgovernment, it could jolt Japan's economy.
So let's analyze and evaluate the economic and fiscal measures of the Hatoyama Administration.
First of all, new administration is forced to issue large amount of government bond in fiscal 2010 budget, ref.(>"'10 budget requests may hit all-time high")
This is at least partly due to decline of fiscal revenue due to getting worse of economic conditions. But it is also a result of election promises embedded in its manifesto.
I admit that the new administration, as it promised in the manifest, intends to reduce and halt wasteful public projects to reduce budget deficit, ref.(>"PUBLIC WORKS FUNDS REDISTRIBUTED IN BUDGETARY REQUESTS, DPJ takes aim at public works")
To begin with, the latest economic perfect turbulence came from abroad so that there aren't so much measures Japan can take.
But even so, the DPJ made too many promises in its manifesto.
Needless to say, such measures aren't free of charge to execute after the DPJ takes power. Namely, the Hatoyama Administration is now forced to pay for evil of populism.
It is good to reduce or extinct wasteful public spending for the sake of fiscal reconstruction. But in order to gain, pain is unavoidable.
Indeed, the more fiscal spending is reduced, the more that could deepen economic slump at least in the short run.
For example, if a construction of a dam is halted, workers concerned could lose their job. For the sake of longer term national interests, not to mention, useless dams mustn't be constructed.
And the new DPJ-led government is in a good position to do so as it enjoys high public approval rate, ref.(>"DPJ good times continue")
In addition, the DPJ has no bondage with vested interests that the LDP formed for decades via pork barrel politics.
But even though, such kind of public works are effective to stimulate economy and create jobs as Keynes argued.
If the DPJ sticks to its election manifesto to recover fiscal health, there is no doubt that it is to raise unemployment rate, ref.(>"Coaxing an employment boost")
I can tell you that the DPJ will be forced to withdraw its election pledges sooner or later to avoid further economic deterioration.
Another move the new govermnet takes is to reverse the ex. prime minister Junichiro Koizumi's pet program of postal reforms, ref.(>"JAPAN POST CHIEF SET TO BOW OUT, Japan Post boss set to step down" & "Makeover of postal privatization")
This is initiated by Shizuka Kamei who is a arch political enemy of Koizumi, ref.(>"Kamei to replace half of Japan Post board")
There is no doubt that Mr. Kamei, minister in charge of postal services, is push back by his personal feeling.
Namely, his personal grudge against Koizumi who banished him from the LDP during the so called the "postal reform general election" in 2005.
Even though there are some pains, postal privatization is indispensable for the sake of Japan's longer term national interests.
Just as his another pet program of debt-moratorium law shows, it was Mr. Hatoyama's serious mistake to appoint Mr. Kamei as a state minister, ref.(>"Debt relief by lenders won't be forced")
The story has yet finished. New president of Japan Post Holdings Co. is a former Vice Finance Minister -- Mr. Jiro Saito, ref.(>"SAITO AT HELM, Japan Post's public focus is back: Saito")
But Mr. Hatoyama promises to realize politician-led, not bureaucrat-led, politics, doesn't he?
Anyway, Mr. Saito has been a close ally of Mr. Ozawa who is the shadow leader of the DPJ, ref.(>"Japan Post, with new boss, returning to public roots")
So this personnel decision surely reflects Mr. Ozawa's intention. It shows that Mr. Ozawa doesn't respect Mr. Hatoyama's intention, and Mr. Hatoyama can't ignore Mr. Ozawa's will.
As everyone notices, there are two leaders in the Hatoyama Administration. In Russia, it seems that so called "tandem" is working well as Prime Minister Putin takes political initiative.
How about in Japan? If tandem works well, it is not Mr. Hatoyama but Mr. Ozawa who will take a lead.
Anyway, Transport minister Mr. Seiji Maehara is also aiming to show strong leadership for the sake of reforms.
Not only dam construction but also air-flight policy he is trying to reform. First of all, Mr. Maehara is involved in rescue program of the Japan's flog-ship carrier, JAL.
Detailed contents of the rescue program has yet decided. But it will be arranged within short -- probably, huge amount of tax money will be injected into JAL.
Mr. Maehara revealed his intention to come Haneda Airport back as an international hub one, ref.(>"Maehara eyes turning Haneda into 24-hour hub airport for international flights")
At glance, his intention seems to be good. But to do so, the government can't ignore feeling and will of Chiba Prefecture -- both local municipality and residents.
Ref.(>"Ministers try to soothe Chiba over Haneda plan" & "Can Narita, Haneda live in harmony?")
Unfortunately, I don't have detailed and exact knowledge about air-flight policy and industry.
All what I want to say is that "people concerned should prioritize Japan's national interests first," ref.(>"Hub idea deserves airing")
Anyway, it seems that Mr. Maehara is talking on a whim without the groundwork. If he wants to realize his idea, what he needs is deliberation, quiet preparation and groundwork.
For your ref.>Does Japan really want to stay competitive?
>Beginning of the Hatoyama Administration
---------------------------------------
What the 41th Tokyo Motor Show teach us
The 41st Tokyo Motor Show was started on Oct. 24th at the Makuhari Messe convention center in Mihama Ward, Chiba Prefecture.
But unfortunately, the annual motor show in Japan in 2009 apparently lacks vigor and heat. Some say this is due to global economic fiasco triggered by subprime fiasco in the U.S., ref.(>"Global slump hits Tokyo Motor Show")
But just moment please. The motor showed held in Shanghai this year attracted 77 automakers.
Ref.>"東京モーターショー出展、最少の108社に 海外勢辞退相次ぎ"
> 日本自動車工業会（東京・港）は29日、10月23日から千葉市で開く「東京モーターショー2009」の概要を発表した。世界的な新車販売の低迷を背景に海外勢の出展辞退が続出。出展社数は108社と２年前の前回の半分以下に減少し、過去最少となる。自工会では試乗会の開催などクルマの魅力を伝える取り組みを強化し、100万人の来場を目指すとしている。
> 41回目を迎える今回の展示車両数は270台で、前回（517台）を大幅に下回る。乗用車では前回は26社だった外国車は英ロータスと独アルピナの２社のみ。会期も11月４日までと当初より４日間短縮した。
> 東京モーターショーは1954年から始まり、世界五大モーターショーに数えられる。ただ、今回、東京に出展しない独フォルクスワーゲンや米ゼネラル・モーターズなど世界の自動車大手は今年４月の中国の上海モーターショーにはこぞって参加しており、東京の存在感の低下も指摘される。
>"東京モーターショー、入場者100万人維持なるか"
> 東京モーターショーの一般公開が 24日、千葉市の幕張メッセで12日間の日程で始まる。海外有力メーカーが出展しない逆風のなか、主催の日本自動車工業会は新イベントなどを企画。79年から維持してきた入場者100万人を死守しようと懸命だ。
>「未来の車が現実になってきている。ぜひ、ここに来て乗ってほしい」。特別招待日の23日、千葉県の森田健作知事はホンダの燃料電池車に試乗し、ショーを PRした。一般公開後も、入場者が実際に車を運転できる試乗会を開く。各国のモーターショーでも例がない目玉企画という。
> トヨタ自動車、日産自動車、ホンダ、マツダ、三菱自動車、富士重工業が、電気自動車といった次世代エコカーや新型車など 29台を用意。30日まで毎日、先着順で試乗を受け付ける。二輪車も 31日から11/4日まで、内外６社の 26台を試乗できる。
> 自動車ジャーナリストがガイドを務めるツアーも実施。すでに希望者の申し込みを締め切ったが、450人の定員に約 900人が応募したという。
> 次世代ファンの獲得も目指し、入場無料を前回の小学生以下から中学生以下に広げる。月〜木曜日は小中学校の特別見学日とし、昼食スペースも確保する。対象を千葉県内の学校から、会場に近い東京都江東区と江戸川区に拡大。過去最多の 34校 3794人が応募した。
> 今回、出展する海外自動車メーカーは英国のロータスとケータハム、独アルピナの３社だけ。業績低迷などで前回の 26社から大幅に減る。
If global economic slump was the main cause of shrinkage of the Tokyo Motor Show, the Shanghai Motor Show would've experience similar pain.
Why Shanghai enjoyed prosperity while Tokyo is struggling to gather both exhibition-firms and spectators?
There must be much more deep rooted causes in Tokyo Motor Show's difficulty. Namely, Japan's position in the global auto industry is sinking.
Of course, Japan's auto companies -- both parts suppliers and final-product makers -- are still the world strongest.
Even so posting deficit, there is no doubt that Toyota Motor Company is the world largest, strongest and best auto company.
Toyota and Honda are running top positions regarding to R&D and sales of hybrid vehicles. Some Japanese auto firms are progressing R&D of electric vehicles as a promising candidate for the next generation vehicle.
When it comes to R&D, technology, quality, cost performance and industry-size, Japan is still the world best player. So why the Tokyo Motor Show in 2009 lacks enthusiasm?
Easy. Scale of auto market in Japan is shrinking rapidly. Indeed, all Japan's auto manufactures are struggling facing the shrinkage of sales in both unit-number and sales-value.
As attractiveness of Japan as a vehicle and parts purchaser declines, it is only natural that foreigners neglect Japan.
On the other hand, market-size in China is expanding rapidly.
Indeed, it is expected vehicle sales number in China is to top that in the U.S. and to become the world largest market in both sales and manufacturing this year.
Ref.(>"中国の自動車生産、09年世界一へ 初の1000万台突破"
> 中国自動車メーカーの業界団体である中国汽車工業協会は 20日、2009年の自動車生産台数が1000万台を突破したと発表した。中国が年1000万台を超えるのは初めて。
> 昨年世界１位だった日本は輸出低迷で落ち込んでおり、中国が販売とともに生産でも今年１位となるのは確実だ。部品などの関連産業の集積も進んでおり、規模を生かした製品の高度化にも弾みがつきそうだ。
> 中国の１〜９月の国内生産台数は前年同期比 32.0%増の 961万台。通年では「1250万から1300万台」（自動車大手幹部）との見方が多い。中国の自動車生産台数は 08年に米国を抜き、日本に次ぐ世界２位に浮上した。)
In other words, almost all auto firms expect neither the U.S. nor Japan, but China.
As China is still not a complete developed country, there is much more room for economic growth. In addition, Beijing promptly launched massive economic stimulus measure to re-accelerate economic growth.
As the result, as the expansion of auto market shows, China has already returned to economic growth path.
Anyway, shrinkage of Japan's auto market is due to structural cause of demographic factor. Namely, aging and shrinking population is the root cause of fall of the Tokyo Motor Show.
As a person ages, it is only natural that he or she lose interests in vehicles as the status symbol. In addition, when population decline, so does demands for vehicles.
It means that even if current economic slump finishes, Japan's auto market won't return to the level in the past time, ref.(>"Carmaker quandary: shrink but also grow")
Even worse, there is no magic wand for Japan to resolve demographic problem of aging and shrinking population.
Perhaps, the more time progresses, the more auto market in Japan shrinks. In this meaning, U.S. auto market is much more promising as its population is still rising.
After all, we should consider current trend of "rising-China while falling-Japan" not to be temporal phenomenon due to economic slump but structural power shift based on Japan's decline.
There is no way for Japan to halt China's rush at least in the short term. So Japan should consider mid- and long-term strategy.
In order to launch counter-attack in the longer run, Japan should after all strengthen technology.
Indeed, even though China is to be the world No.1 this year in both production- and sales-number, it is foreigners who are manufacturing there. Domestic firms don't have sufficient ability and technology to compete with foreigners squarely.
Here, Japan should try to jump from current fuel-combustion engine vehicle to the next generation green vehicle. In this meaning, electric vehicle must be the most promising candidate.
As consciousness for environmental issue, especially the global warming issue, many Japanese considers large and fuel consuming vehicles as "evil."
Contents of exhibition of the Tokyo Motor Show 2009 reflects such social trend, ref.(>"TOKYO MOTOR SHOW PITCHES GREEN IN LEAN TIMES, Tokyo Motor Show greener, but also leaner")
In order to reduce CO2 emission and come from behind and win the battle again China, Japan must take not conservative but gold tactic.
Taking such conditions into consideration, the answer is electric vehicles, ref.(>"Renault's electric-car gamble, Mr Ghosn bets the company")
Needless to say, Tokyo must support and promote that with national measures in such as securing sufficient amount of rare metal, ref.(>"Urban mines; Japan is a resources power")
Ref.>Opel, GM and the EU. A spanner in the works
0
New administration's measures that differs from the ex. LDP-led one will improve Japan's economy and people's daily lives as it pledged in its election manifesto?
In my opinion, some of them are good and favorable for Japan while others are bad and even harmful.
Anyway, Japan's economic conditions is still so gloomy that the financial authority is forced to continue its ultra loose monetary policy, ref.(>"BOJ keeps key interest rate at 0.1%")
But it isn't the Hatoyama Administration's responsibility because it only "succeeded" that from the LDP-led government, ref.(>"Government inherits view on economy")
But even so, if new administration makes critical economic misgovernment, it could jolt Japan's economy.
So let's analyze and evaluate the economic and fiscal measures of the Hatoyama Administration.
First of all, new administration is forced to issue large amount of government bond in fiscal 2010 budget, ref.(>"'10 budget requests may hit all-time high")
This is at least partly due to decline of fiscal revenue due to getting worse of economic conditions. But it is also a result of election promises embedded in its manifesto.
I admit that the new administration, as it promised in the manifest, intends to reduce and halt wasteful public projects to reduce budget deficit, ref.(>"PUBLIC WORKS FUNDS REDISTRIBUTED IN BUDGETARY REQUESTS, DPJ takes aim at public works")
To begin with, the latest economic perfect turbulence came from abroad so that there aren't so much measures Japan can take.
But even so, the DPJ made too many promises in its manifesto.
Needless to say, such measures aren't free of charge to execute after the DPJ takes power. Namely, the Hatoyama Administration is now forced to pay for evil of populism.
It is good to reduce or extinct wasteful public spending for the sake of fiscal reconstruction. But in order to gain, pain is unavoidable.
Indeed, the more fiscal spending is reduced, the more that could deepen economic slump at least in the short run.
For example, if a construction of a dam is halted, workers concerned could lose their job. For the sake of longer term national interests, not to mention, useless dams mustn't be constructed.
And the new DPJ-led government is in a good position to do so as it enjoys high public approval rate, ref.(>"DPJ good times continue")
In addition, the DPJ has no bondage with vested interests that the LDP formed for decades via pork barrel politics.
But even though, such kind of public works are effective to stimulate economy and create jobs as Keynes argued.
If the DPJ sticks to its election manifesto to recover fiscal health, there is no doubt that it is to raise unemployment rate, ref.(>"Coaxing an employment boost")
I can tell you that the DPJ will be forced to withdraw its election pledges sooner or later to avoid further economic deterioration.
Another move the new govermnet takes is to reverse the ex. prime minister Junichiro Koizumi's pet program of postal reforms, ref.(>"JAPAN POST CHIEF SET TO BOW OUT, Japan Post boss set to step down" & "Makeover of postal privatization")
This is initiated by Shizuka Kamei who is a arch political enemy of Koizumi, ref.(>"Kamei to replace half of Japan Post board")
There is no doubt that Mr. Kamei, minister in charge of postal services, is push back by his personal feeling.
Namely, his personal grudge against Koizumi who banished him from the LDP during the so called the "postal reform general election" in 2005.
Even though there are some pains, postal privatization is indispensable for the sake of Japan's longer term national interests.
Just as his another pet program of debt-moratorium law shows, it was Mr. Hatoyama's serious mistake to appoint Mr. Kamei as a state minister, ref.(>"Debt relief by lenders won't be forced")
The story has yet finished. New president of Japan Post Holdings Co. is a former Vice Finance Minister -- Mr. Jiro Saito, ref.(>"SAITO AT HELM, Japan Post's public focus is back: Saito")
But Mr. Hatoyama promises to realize politician-led, not bureaucrat-led, politics, doesn't he?
Anyway, Mr. Saito has been a close ally of Mr. Ozawa who is the shadow leader of the DPJ, ref.(>"Japan Post, with new boss, returning to public roots")
So this personnel decision surely reflects Mr. Ozawa's intention. It shows that Mr. Ozawa doesn't respect Mr. Hatoyama's intention, and Mr. Hatoyama can't ignore Mr. Ozawa's will.
As everyone notices, there are two leaders in the Hatoyama Administration. In Russia, it seems that so called "tandem" is working well as Prime Minister Putin takes political initiative.
How about in Japan? If tandem works well, it is not Mr. Hatoyama but Mr. Ozawa who will take a lead.
Anyway, Transport minister Mr. Seiji Maehara is also aiming to show strong leadership for the sake of reforms.
Not only dam construction but also air-flight policy he is trying to reform. First of all, Mr. Maehara is involved in rescue program of the Japan's flog-ship carrier, JAL.
Detailed contents of the rescue program has yet decided. But it will be arranged within short -- probably, huge amount of tax money will be injected into JAL.
Mr. Maehara revealed his intention to come Haneda Airport back as an international hub one, ref.(>"Maehara eyes turning Haneda into 24-hour hub airport for international flights")
At glance, his intention seems to be good. But to do so, the government can't ignore feeling and will of Chiba Prefecture -- both local municipality and residents.
Ref.(>"Ministers try to soothe Chiba over Haneda plan" & "Can Narita, Haneda live in harmony?")
Unfortunately, I don't have detailed and exact knowledge about air-flight policy and industry.
All what I want to say is that "people concerned should prioritize Japan's national interests first," ref.(>"Hub idea deserves airing")
Anyway, it seems that Mr. Maehara is talking on a whim without the groundwork. If he wants to realize his idea, what he needs is deliberation, quiet preparation and groundwork.
For your ref.>Does Japan really want to stay competitive?
>Beginning of the Hatoyama Administration
---------------------------------------
What the 41th Tokyo Motor Show teach us
The 41st Tokyo Motor Show was started on Oct. 24th at the Makuhari Messe convention center in Mihama Ward, Chiba Prefecture.
But unfortunately, the annual motor show in Japan in 2009 apparently lacks vigor and heat. Some say this is due to global economic fiasco triggered by subprime fiasco in the U.S., ref.(>"Global slump hits Tokyo Motor Show")
But just moment please. The motor showed held in Shanghai this year attracted 77 automakers.
Ref.>"東京モーターショー出展、最少の108社に 海外勢辞退相次ぎ"
> 日本自動車工業会（東京・港）は29日、10月23日から千葉市で開く「東京モーターショー2009」の概要を発表した。世界的な新車販売の低迷を背景に海外勢の出展辞退が続出。出展社数は108社と２年前の前回の半分以下に減少し、過去最少となる。自工会では試乗会の開催などクルマの魅力を伝える取り組みを強化し、100万人の来場を目指すとしている。
> 41回目を迎える今回の展示車両数は270台で、前回（517台）を大幅に下回る。乗用車では前回は26社だった外国車は英ロータスと独アルピナの２社のみ。会期も11月４日までと当初より４日間短縮した。
> 東京モーターショーは1954年から始まり、世界五大モーターショーに数えられる。ただ、今回、東京に出展しない独フォルクスワーゲンや米ゼネラル・モーターズなど世界の自動車大手は今年４月の中国の上海モーターショーにはこぞって参加しており、東京の存在感の低下も指摘される。
>"東京モーターショー、入場者100万人維持なるか"
> 東京モーターショーの一般公開が 24日、千葉市の幕張メッセで12日間の日程で始まる。海外有力メーカーが出展しない逆風のなか、主催の日本自動車工業会は新イベントなどを企画。79年から維持してきた入場者100万人を死守しようと懸命だ。
>「未来の車が現実になってきている。ぜひ、ここに来て乗ってほしい」。特別招待日の23日、千葉県の森田健作知事はホンダの燃料電池車に試乗し、ショーを PRした。一般公開後も、入場者が実際に車を運転できる試乗会を開く。各国のモーターショーでも例がない目玉企画という。
> トヨタ自動車、日産自動車、ホンダ、マツダ、三菱自動車、富士重工業が、電気自動車といった次世代エコカーや新型車など 29台を用意。30日まで毎日、先着順で試乗を受け付ける。二輪車も 31日から11/4日まで、内外６社の 26台を試乗できる。
> 自動車ジャーナリストがガイドを務めるツアーも実施。すでに希望者の申し込みを締め切ったが、450人の定員に約 900人が応募したという。
> 次世代ファンの獲得も目指し、入場無料を前回の小学生以下から中学生以下に広げる。月〜木曜日は小中学校の特別見学日とし、昼食スペースも確保する。対象を千葉県内の学校から、会場に近い東京都江東区と江戸川区に拡大。過去最多の 34校 3794人が応募した。
> 今回、出展する海外自動車メーカーは英国のロータスとケータハム、独アルピナの３社だけ。業績低迷などで前回の 26社から大幅に減る。
If global economic slump was the main cause of shrinkage of the Tokyo Motor Show, the Shanghai Motor Show would've experience similar pain.
Why Shanghai enjoyed prosperity while Tokyo is struggling to gather both exhibition-firms and spectators?
There must be much more deep rooted causes in Tokyo Motor Show's difficulty. Namely, Japan's position in the global auto industry is sinking.
Of course, Japan's auto companies -- both parts suppliers and final-product makers -- are still the world strongest.
Even so posting deficit, there is no doubt that Toyota Motor Company is the world largest, strongest and best auto company.
Toyota and Honda are running top positions regarding to R&D and sales of hybrid vehicles. Some Japanese auto firms are progressing R&D of electric vehicles as a promising candidate for the next generation vehicle.
When it comes to R&D, technology, quality, cost performance and industry-size, Japan is still the world best player. So why the Tokyo Motor Show in 2009 lacks enthusiasm?
Easy. Scale of auto market in Japan is shrinking rapidly. Indeed, all Japan's auto manufactures are struggling facing the shrinkage of sales in both unit-number and sales-value.
As attractiveness of Japan as a vehicle and parts purchaser declines, it is only natural that foreigners neglect Japan.
On the other hand, market-size in China is expanding rapidly.
Indeed, it is expected vehicle sales number in China is to top that in the U.S. and to become the world largest market in both sales and manufacturing this year.
Ref.(>"中国の自動車生産、09年世界一へ 初の1000万台突破"
> 中国自動車メーカーの業界団体である中国汽車工業協会は 20日、2009年の自動車生産台数が1000万台を突破したと発表した。中国が年1000万台を超えるのは初めて。
> 昨年世界１位だった日本は輸出低迷で落ち込んでおり、中国が販売とともに生産でも今年１位となるのは確実だ。部品などの関連産業の集積も進んでおり、規模を生かした製品の高度化にも弾みがつきそうだ。
> 中国の１〜９月の国内生産台数は前年同期比 32.0%増の 961万台。通年では「1250万から1300万台」（自動車大手幹部）との見方が多い。中国の自動車生産台数は 08年に米国を抜き、日本に次ぐ世界２位に浮上した。)
In other words, almost all auto firms expect neither the U.S. nor Japan, but China.
As China is still not a complete developed country, there is much more room for economic growth. In addition, Beijing promptly launched massive economic stimulus measure to re-accelerate economic growth.
As the result, as the expansion of auto market shows, China has already returned to economic growth path.
Anyway, shrinkage of Japan's auto market is due to structural cause of demographic factor. Namely, aging and shrinking population is the root cause of fall of the Tokyo Motor Show.
As a person ages, it is only natural that he or she lose interests in vehicles as the status symbol. In addition, when population decline, so does demands for vehicles.
It means that even if current economic slump finishes, Japan's auto market won't return to the level in the past time, ref.(>"Carmaker quandary: shrink but also grow")
Even worse, there is no magic wand for Japan to resolve demographic problem of aging and shrinking population.
Perhaps, the more time progresses, the more auto market in Japan shrinks. In this meaning, U.S. auto market is much more promising as its population is still rising.
After all, we should consider current trend of "rising-China while falling-Japan" not to be temporal phenomenon due to economic slump but structural power shift based on Japan's decline.
There is no way for Japan to halt China's rush at least in the short term. So Japan should consider mid- and long-term strategy.
In order to launch counter-attack in the longer run, Japan should after all strengthen technology.
Indeed, even though China is to be the world No.1 this year in both production- and sales-number, it is foreigners who are manufacturing there. Domestic firms don't have sufficient ability and technology to compete with foreigners squarely.
Here, Japan should try to jump from current fuel-combustion engine vehicle to the next generation green vehicle. In this meaning, electric vehicle must be the most promising candidate.
As consciousness for environmental issue, especially the global warming issue, many Japanese considers large and fuel consuming vehicles as "evil."
Contents of exhibition of the Tokyo Motor Show 2009 reflects such social trend, ref.(>"TOKYO MOTOR SHOW PITCHES GREEN IN LEAN TIMES, Tokyo Motor Show greener, but also leaner")
In order to reduce CO2 emission and come from behind and win the battle again China, Japan must take not conservative but gold tactic.
Taking such conditions into consideration, the answer is electric vehicles, ref.(>"Renault's electric-car gamble, Mr Ghosn bets the company")
Needless to say, Tokyo must support and promote that with national measures in such as securing sufficient amount of rare metal, ref.(>"Urban mines; Japan is a resources power")
Ref.>Opel, GM and the EU. A spanner in the works
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