2009/11/1 22：28
Unstoppable economic growth in China ('09. 11/1)
It was forecasted that "regarding GDP, China would top Japan within 2009 depending on foreign exchange rate" -- sizes of GDP are compared in US$ dominated amount.
But as JPN\ has risen against US$ while Beijing intends to fix Yuan's rates against that, Japan is likely to keep its position as the world No.2 economic power if it goes as it is.
But even so, it is almost certain that China will top Japan in 2010, ref.(>"China rising while Japan declining")
Some anti-China persons -- I am the one of them -- expected that once U.S. economy slows down, so does China's one because China's economic growth excessively depends on exports in particular to the U.S.
Indeed, I expected that the more U.S. economy deteriorates and reduce imports of made-in-China products, the more China's economy slows down.
Namely, I expected a collapse of an economic bubble, or even the CCP regime, in China.
But the reality is far from that, and a dream of a collapse of Chinese bubble banished.
Although China's economy was surely jolted by global economic fall, its economy has at the very beginning restarted robust growth backed by massive governmental economic stimulus measures.
Now, it is China that is expected by the world to take the role of a locomotive of the world economy replacing the U.S., ref.(>"China's roaring economy, Bull in a china shop")
But even though, I dare to say that China's economy isn't a invincible armada. On the contrary, China has many contradictions and defects in its economic and social system.
First of all, the regime of "the CCP one-party dictatorship" in China doesn't literally mean "one party rule."
From ancient times, the national conditions is China is "When a central government has a policy, local ones have countermeasures."
For example, following frequent occurrence of the accidents in coal mines, Beijing ordered to close small scale coal mines.
But in some cases, local governments neglects that in order to continue operation, ref.(>"China's private coalmines, The pendulum swings against the pit")
In reality, China depends on coal for its primary energy resources so that drilling of coal is "must" for the sake of economic growth.
Dependency on coal in power generation in China is around 70% so that if local governments obey to Beijing, China will face electric-shortage up promptly.
China has massive trade surplus so that it could imports necessary coal from Australia for example if all small size coal mines were closed.
But local governments tend to continue to drill locally because they want to keep jobs for local residents. In addition, they can fill their pockets via local operations.
Second, even though domestic consumption is rising gradually, China's economic growth still depends on exports and fixed asset investment excessively.
Recently, many foreign firms expect China to sell their products and services. But "giant market of 1.3 billion people" is nothing more than a daydream.
In China, gap between haves and haves-not is so wide. Middle class and rich people are still restricted in the urbanized coastal regions.
Even though taking the fact of "more than half of Chinese are still poor farmers" into consideration, purchasing power of the coastal regions is still great.
Indeed, the coastal regions alone have more population than Japan. And the more China's economy grows, the more middle class emerges.
And both central and local governments intends to develop inland regions in order to narrow economic gap and to realize harmonized society.
There is no doubt that China's domestic market is growing rapidly. But even so, "market of 1.3 billion people" is an empty dream.
The reality is "market of a few hundreds of millions," ref.(>"Selling foreign goods in China, Impenetrable")
As the domestic demands is not sufficient, it is only natural that China depends on exports and fixed-asset investments for the sake of economic growth, ref.(>"China too reliant on exports, fixed-asset investments: expert")
Third, as I mentioned repeatedly in this blog, the largest restrictive factor in China's economy is environmental problems, ref.(>"China's economy in 2009")
I respect the "Chinese civilization" as one of the oldest civilization in the world. Since the dawn of history, Japan accepted various state of the art knowledge and technology from the Chinese Empire.
But even so, it is an absolute fact that Chinese civilization doesn't consider environmental protection and symbiosis with nature.
China's economic growth was progressed without consideration for environment until recently.
At last, Beijing realized recently that environmental protection is "must" for the sake of stable and sustainable growth, and takes countermeasures to do so.
But at local level, Beijing's intention isn't obeyed thoroughly, ref.(>"Green China, The price of cleanliness") Indeed, it is the reason why Beijing pretends to be "pro-Japan."
Beijing's real intention is to deprive Japan's state of the art environmental and energy-conservative technology.
"In ostensible principle, Beijing raises a flog of "peaceful rising," ref.(>"Paranoids feast on China's 'peaceful rising'")
But in the reality, Beijing is progressing military build-up at an unimaginable pace, ref.(>"US seventh fleet receives a sailing order -- going on board of USS Blue Ridge, LCC-19")
We Japanese should realize that Beijing's current ostensible friendly attitude toward Japan is nothing more than a "smile-mask.
There is no doubt that Beijing considers Japan as a "hypothesis enemy" that it must pay off an old score in the early half of the 20th century.
Due to its traditional Sinocentrism, the Chinese Empire doesn't tolerate a presence of an equal opponent. Beijing must beat Japan sooner or later -- but not now.
I can tell you that once Beijing gains economic and military power and tops Japan completely, China will bare its fangs against Japan.
In other words, now is the time of "preparation" for China to reconstruct its traditional Sinocentrism regime in the east Asia.
The more Japan's firms build factories and R&D centers in China, Japan is raising a future enemy. When Japan's firms invest in China and contribute economic growth, it is just a suicide.
The Han race and the Japanese race have totally different national traits. Hans are cunning and ferocity. The more China rises, the more crisis-level rises for Japan.
Due to its history of an empire, Hans are cunning for the devil when it comes to ruling other ethnic groups.
We Japanese should realize, to begin with, China is not a democratic state in that freedom of press, speech and gathering aren't secured, ref.(>"Summit highlights media problems in China")
Rising of a Chinese dragon isn't a perfect economic opportunity but the future military threat.
As we can see in Tibet and Xinjiang, circumstances of minor ethnic groups that dominated and suppressed by Hans are miserable, ref.(>"Uprising in Xinjiang, or East Turkestan")
We Japanese should avoid such kind of destiny. In order to do so, as the first step we should realize that China is the largest hypothesis enemy only after the "aging and shrinking population issue."
For your ref.>Missiles crimp Taiwan's thoughts of peace
>China's currency, A yuan-sided argument
>China's navy off Somalia, Cash and carry
0
But as JPN\ has risen against US$ while Beijing intends to fix Yuan's rates against that, Japan is likely to keep its position as the world No.2 economic power if it goes as it is.
But even so, it is almost certain that China will top Japan in 2010, ref.(>"China rising while Japan declining")
Some anti-China persons -- I am the one of them -- expected that once U.S. economy slows down, so does China's one because China's economic growth excessively depends on exports in particular to the U.S.
Indeed, I expected that the more U.S. economy deteriorates and reduce imports of made-in-China products, the more China's economy slows down.
Namely, I expected a collapse of an economic bubble, or even the CCP regime, in China.
But the reality is far from that, and a dream of a collapse of Chinese bubble banished.
Although China's economy was surely jolted by global economic fall, its economy has at the very beginning restarted robust growth backed by massive governmental economic stimulus measures.
Now, it is China that is expected by the world to take the role of a locomotive of the world economy replacing the U.S., ref.(>"China's roaring economy, Bull in a china shop")
But even though, I dare to say that China's economy isn't a invincible armada. On the contrary, China has many contradictions and defects in its economic and social system.
First of all, the regime of "the CCP one-party dictatorship" in China doesn't literally mean "one party rule."
From ancient times, the national conditions is China is "When a central government has a policy, local ones have countermeasures."
For example, following frequent occurrence of the accidents in coal mines, Beijing ordered to close small scale coal mines.
But in some cases, local governments neglects that in order to continue operation, ref.(>"China's private coalmines, The pendulum swings against the pit")
In reality, China depends on coal for its primary energy resources so that drilling of coal is "must" for the sake of economic growth.
Dependency on coal in power generation in China is around 70% so that if local governments obey to Beijing, China will face electric-shortage up promptly.
China has massive trade surplus so that it could imports necessary coal from Australia for example if all small size coal mines were closed.
But local governments tend to continue to drill locally because they want to keep jobs for local residents. In addition, they can fill their pockets via local operations.
Second, even though domestic consumption is rising gradually, China's economic growth still depends on exports and fixed asset investment excessively.
Recently, many foreign firms expect China to sell their products and services. But "giant market of 1.3 billion people" is nothing more than a daydream.
In China, gap between haves and haves-not is so wide. Middle class and rich people are still restricted in the urbanized coastal regions.
Even though taking the fact of "more than half of Chinese are still poor farmers" into consideration, purchasing power of the coastal regions is still great.
Indeed, the coastal regions alone have more population than Japan. And the more China's economy grows, the more middle class emerges.
And both central and local governments intends to develop inland regions in order to narrow economic gap and to realize harmonized society.
There is no doubt that China's domestic market is growing rapidly. But even so, "market of 1.3 billion people" is an empty dream.
The reality is "market of a few hundreds of millions," ref.(>"Selling foreign goods in China, Impenetrable")
As the domestic demands is not sufficient, it is only natural that China depends on exports and fixed-asset investments for the sake of economic growth, ref.(>"China too reliant on exports, fixed-asset investments: expert")
Third, as I mentioned repeatedly in this blog, the largest restrictive factor in China's economy is environmental problems, ref.(>"China's economy in 2009")
I respect the "Chinese civilization" as one of the oldest civilization in the world. Since the dawn of history, Japan accepted various state of the art knowledge and technology from the Chinese Empire.
But even so, it is an absolute fact that Chinese civilization doesn't consider environmental protection and symbiosis with nature.
China's economic growth was progressed without consideration for environment until recently.
At last, Beijing realized recently that environmental protection is "must" for the sake of stable and sustainable growth, and takes countermeasures to do so.
But at local level, Beijing's intention isn't obeyed thoroughly, ref.(>"Green China, The price of cleanliness") Indeed, it is the reason why Beijing pretends to be "pro-Japan."
Beijing's real intention is to deprive Japan's state of the art environmental and energy-conservative technology.
"In ostensible principle, Beijing raises a flog of "peaceful rising," ref.(>"Paranoids feast on China's 'peaceful rising'")
But in the reality, Beijing is progressing military build-up at an unimaginable pace, ref.(>"US seventh fleet receives a sailing order -- going on board of USS Blue Ridge, LCC-19")
We Japanese should realize that Beijing's current ostensible friendly attitude toward Japan is nothing more than a "smile-mask.
There is no doubt that Beijing considers Japan as a "hypothesis enemy" that it must pay off an old score in the early half of the 20th century.
Due to its traditional Sinocentrism, the Chinese Empire doesn't tolerate a presence of an equal opponent. Beijing must beat Japan sooner or later -- but not now.
I can tell you that once Beijing gains economic and military power and tops Japan completely, China will bare its fangs against Japan.
In other words, now is the time of "preparation" for China to reconstruct its traditional Sinocentrism regime in the east Asia.
The more Japan's firms build factories and R&D centers in China, Japan is raising a future enemy. When Japan's firms invest in China and contribute economic growth, it is just a suicide.
The Han race and the Japanese race have totally different national traits. Hans are cunning and ferocity. The more China rises, the more crisis-level rises for Japan.
Due to its history of an empire, Hans are cunning for the devil when it comes to ruling other ethnic groups.
We Japanese should realize, to begin with, China is not a democratic state in that freedom of press, speech and gathering aren't secured, ref.(>"Summit highlights media problems in China")
Rising of a Chinese dragon isn't a perfect economic opportunity but the future military threat.
As we can see in Tibet and Xinjiang, circumstances of minor ethnic groups that dominated and suppressed by Hans are miserable, ref.(>"Uprising in Xinjiang, or East Turkestan")
We Japanese should avoid such kind of destiny. In order to do so, as the first step we should realize that China is the largest hypothesis enemy only after the "aging and shrinking population issue."
For your ref.>Missiles crimp Taiwan's thoughts of peace
>China's currency, A yuan-sided argument
>China's navy off Somalia, Cash and carry
0
