2009/11/7 22：27
Emerging economies in 2010; epicenter of an another crisis ('09. 11/7)
In 2009, so called emerging economies are doing relatively better than developed countries. As their powers rise, so does their influential voices.
Emergence of G20, replacing traditional G7 or G8, symbolically represents this move, ref.(>"Meaning of failure of the latest G20")
Although t seems a little bit that G20 means just a photo opportunity for leaders, traditional G7 has already lost their exclude power to decide global matters without hearing their voices.
But not all of newly emerging economies have practical influential power in G20. Even among them, needless to say, there are both haves and haves-not.
Here, truly influential powers are so called "BRICs." Further more, there are both blight countries and gloomy ones among BRICs.
For example, China just represents the blight side of them, and its influential power about global issues is rising, ref.(>"Unstoppable economic growth in China")
Not only China but also Brazil is also a winner of BRICs. At glance, Brazil's economic growth isn't so significant comparing with China.
But unlike China, Brazil is a net exporter of energy and other mineral resources. In addition, as prices of grains hike Brazil is the most promising country in the world, when it comes to agriculture.
We should take it granted that Rio beat Tokyo to hold summer Olympic game in 2016, ref.(>"Brazil and the Olympics, Rio's expensive new rings")
In 2010, both China and Brazil will continue their paths of solid economic growth in my opinion.
In the short run, China's economy will be more promising than Brazil's because the later must pay so called "cost of democracy" Beijing can take and progress bold measures speedily without hearing public opinion.
Sometimes, especially in developing countries, such authoritarian manner is more effective than democratic decision making way.
On the other hand, Russia is a loser among BRICs. During the Soviet period, innovation was delayed and industry became to be out of date comparing with western world.
In addition, chaos just after collapse of the Soviet damaged Russia's industry and economy decisively.
Recent economic prosperity in Russia depends on price hike of crude oil and natural gas. As the result, as prices of energy resources decline, so does Russia's economy.
Even though Moscow is making as much effort as possible to promote modern industry in Russia, its economy still depends on export of various natural resources -- especially, energy resources.
In 2009, prices of energy resources recovered partially. But current price level of crude oil is still around half of its highest of a little bit under \150/barrel.
In 2010, Russia will be swung around by prices of energy resources.
On the other hand, political stability is a positive factor for Russia's economy and society in the longer term.
Even though its authoritarian ruling manner is criticized by western world, so called "tandem" by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and the President Dmitrii Medvedev is working pretty well.
As it is a member of P-5 of the U.N and a great nuclear power, we can't despise Russia too much ref.(>"Is Russia really so weak?")
When it comes to India, its economic growth has looked inferior for years than China's. As the result, India's economic size is 1/3 of China's now.
After all, Delhi is forced to pay cost of democracy. It is an absolute fact that democracy isn't a infallible system when it comes to economic development.
Sometimes, authoritarian manner works well in a developing country because it takes shorter time in decision making, and progress bold measures with force in necessary.
When it comes politics, democratic system can't suppress dissidents with a state power without caring human rights, ref.(>"India's Naxalite rebellion, The red heart of India")
Even though both Japan and EU are interested in business in India, when it comes to foreign direct investment, political instability isn't a positive factor, ref.(>"THE VIEW FROM EUROPE. Japan, EU jockey for position in effort to ink India trade pact")
On the other hand, unlike China, India is progressing economic growth slowly but continuously, ref.(>"Domestic outsourcing in India, Bittersweet synergy")
India has little concern about massive and severe social disorder because haves-not in India can express their dissatisfaction via voting.
In addition, Delhi can supply enough food for people at least who have money, ref.(>"India has enough food for those who can pay")
Totally speaking, although India's economy is smaller than China's, India is a more reliable international player, ref.(>"Is Indian 'soft power' in Afghanistan working?")
From the view point of Japan, Tokyo must build more close tie with pro-Japan India rather than anti-Japan China.
So Tokyo should promote advancement of Japan's firms into India for the sake of win-win strategy, ref.(>"India and capital flows, A world apart")
Other than BRICs, there are many newly emerging economies around the world. Before subprime fiasco emerged in 2007, they were doing very well.
But since the Lehman Shock, many of them -- for example, Iceland, Ireland, Baltic states, mid- and east-Europe, Dubai and so on -- are struggling.
Prompt and dramatic recoveries of them can't be expected, ref.(>"Ireland's second take on the EU" & "Baltic economies, The Estonian exception" & "Dubai's debt mountain, Dredging the debt")
But as the U.S. has lost its capability as a locomotive of the world economy, newly emerged economies should take a role of that at least partly.
At present, every and each person around the world expect China to lead. But China alone can't replace the U.S. as a last resort of consumption.
So in principle, other emerging economies should cooperate well with China for the sake of escape from world recession.
Indeed, in a deplorable thing, Japan's financial authority is a "reliance upon others," ref.(>"Emerging economies reducing risks: Shirakawa")
Here, the problem is whether it is possible or not, ref.(>"The role of emerging markets, Cosmetic surgery?")
We should prepare that mid- and east-Europe and Baltic states could be an another epicenter of a next world economic perfect storm rather than saviors in 2010.
For your ref.>"Green Shoots"か、それとも"False Dawn"か?
>JAPANESE PERSPECTIVES, Warped triangles show global economy being pulled toward ruin
0
Emergence of G20, replacing traditional G7 or G8, symbolically represents this move, ref.(>"Meaning of failure of the latest G20")
Although t seems a little bit that G20 means just a photo opportunity for leaders, traditional G7 has already lost their exclude power to decide global matters without hearing their voices.
But not all of newly emerging economies have practical influential power in G20. Even among them, needless to say, there are both haves and haves-not.
Here, truly influential powers are so called "BRICs." Further more, there are both blight countries and gloomy ones among BRICs.
For example, China just represents the blight side of them, and its influential power about global issues is rising, ref.(>"Unstoppable economic growth in China")
Not only China but also Brazil is also a winner of BRICs. At glance, Brazil's economic growth isn't so significant comparing with China.
But unlike China, Brazil is a net exporter of energy and other mineral resources. In addition, as prices of grains hike Brazil is the most promising country in the world, when it comes to agriculture.
We should take it granted that Rio beat Tokyo to hold summer Olympic game in 2016, ref.(>"Brazil and the Olympics, Rio's expensive new rings")
In 2010, both China and Brazil will continue their paths of solid economic growth in my opinion.
In the short run, China's economy will be more promising than Brazil's because the later must pay so called "cost of democracy" Beijing can take and progress bold measures speedily without hearing public opinion.
Sometimes, especially in developing countries, such authoritarian manner is more effective than democratic decision making way.
On the other hand, Russia is a loser among BRICs. During the Soviet period, innovation was delayed and industry became to be out of date comparing with western world.
In addition, chaos just after collapse of the Soviet damaged Russia's industry and economy decisively.
Recent economic prosperity in Russia depends on price hike of crude oil and natural gas. As the result, as prices of energy resources decline, so does Russia's economy.
Even though Moscow is making as much effort as possible to promote modern industry in Russia, its economy still depends on export of various natural resources -- especially, energy resources.
In 2009, prices of energy resources recovered partially. But current price level of crude oil is still around half of its highest of a little bit under \150/barrel.
In 2010, Russia will be swung around by prices of energy resources.
On the other hand, political stability is a positive factor for Russia's economy and society in the longer term.
Even though its authoritarian ruling manner is criticized by western world, so called "tandem" by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and the President Dmitrii Medvedev is working pretty well.
As it is a member of P-5 of the U.N and a great nuclear power, we can't despise Russia too much ref.(>"Is Russia really so weak?")
When it comes to India, its economic growth has looked inferior for years than China's. As the result, India's economic size is 1/3 of China's now.
After all, Delhi is forced to pay cost of democracy. It is an absolute fact that democracy isn't a infallible system when it comes to economic development.
Sometimes, authoritarian manner works well in a developing country because it takes shorter time in decision making, and progress bold measures with force in necessary.
When it comes politics, democratic system can't suppress dissidents with a state power without caring human rights, ref.(>"India's Naxalite rebellion, The red heart of India")
Even though both Japan and EU are interested in business in India, when it comes to foreign direct investment, political instability isn't a positive factor, ref.(>"THE VIEW FROM EUROPE. Japan, EU jockey for position in effort to ink India trade pact")
On the other hand, unlike China, India is progressing economic growth slowly but continuously, ref.(>"Domestic outsourcing in India, Bittersweet synergy")
India has little concern about massive and severe social disorder because haves-not in India can express their dissatisfaction via voting.
In addition, Delhi can supply enough food for people at least who have money, ref.(>"India has enough food for those who can pay")
Totally speaking, although India's economy is smaller than China's, India is a more reliable international player, ref.(>"Is Indian 'soft power' in Afghanistan working?")
From the view point of Japan, Tokyo must build more close tie with pro-Japan India rather than anti-Japan China.
So Tokyo should promote advancement of Japan's firms into India for the sake of win-win strategy, ref.(>"India and capital flows, A world apart")
Other than BRICs, there are many newly emerging economies around the world. Before subprime fiasco emerged in 2007, they were doing very well.
But since the Lehman Shock, many of them -- for example, Iceland, Ireland, Baltic states, mid- and east-Europe, Dubai and so on -- are struggling.
Prompt and dramatic recoveries of them can't be expected, ref.(>"Ireland's second take on the EU" & "Baltic economies, The Estonian exception" & "Dubai's debt mountain, Dredging the debt")
But as the U.S. has lost its capability as a locomotive of the world economy, newly emerged economies should take a role of that at least partly.
At present, every and each person around the world expect China to lead. But China alone can't replace the U.S. as a last resort of consumption.
So in principle, other emerging economies should cooperate well with China for the sake of escape from world recession.
Indeed, in a deplorable thing, Japan's financial authority is a "reliance upon others," ref.(>"Emerging economies reducing risks: Shirakawa")
Here, the problem is whether it is possible or not, ref.(>"The role of emerging markets, Cosmetic surgery?")
We should prepare that mid- and east-Europe and Baltic states could be an another epicenter of a next world economic perfect storm rather than saviors in 2010.
For your ref.>"Green Shoots"か、それとも"False Dawn"か?
>JAPANESE PERSPECTIVES, Warped triangles show global economy being pulled toward ruin
0
